Today at 15:30 Kyiv time, the most important economic report of the month is released — Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate in the USA for September.

These data will determine how actively the Fed will be cutting interest rates at the next meeting. And therefore — where $BTC and the entire market will head.

📊 What to watch and what to expect?

1️⃣ New jobs (NFP)

Forecast: +98k (last month was +162k).

🟢 < 80k–90k (weak market): Faster rate cuts ➡️ Dollar decline ➡️ Growth of $BTC and higher-risk assets.

🔴 > 130k–150k (strong market): The Fed won’t rush to provide “cheap money” ➡️ A local pullback in crypto.

2️⃣ Unemployment rate

Forecast: 4.1%.

If the figure rises to 4.2–4.3%, the market will price in a higher probability of a 0.50% rate cut, which will add positivity for cryptocurrencies.

3️⃣ Wage growth (Average Hourly Earnings)

Forecast: +0.3% MoM. Higher figures = inflation risk (negative for the market).

🎯 What about the regulatory backdrop?

At the same time, the market is digesting U.S. initiatives:

➡️ The SEC has proposed new custody storage rules (a plus for institutions).

➡️ The Fed is preparing reserve requirements for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.

💡 Takeaway: Bitcoin is holding around $85,000. If the NFP report turns out to be moderately weak, it could give the market the momentum it needs to continue the “Uptober” trend.

⚠️ Note: High volatility is expected at 15:30. Be careful with leverage!