PAXG is being pinned around 4159. At the same time, more than 70% of positions are betting on an upside move, yet the perpetual fee rate is only 0.001% to 0.005%, and according to public discussion it has even turned negative. The market is suddenly talking about it because tonight at 20:30 there is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
My take: this doesn’t look like a “step-up” ground being set before a breakout; it’s more like support is being slowly consumed. The more crowded the longs get, the more incremental capital is needed to push price higher; downward only needs a single stop-loss cascade to trigger a drop. The 4307 area has been repeatedly mentioned as a dense pressure zone. Once 4159 is broken, those who run slowly will be forced into a passive transfer of positions.
On the other hand, some people say there’s continuous buy support below, and that a volume-increasing sell-off hasn’t managed to break through. Gold itself is also being pressured by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.2% and the USD at 101–102. The 4200 to 4300 zone above is viewed as a pressure range. All these views point to the same disagreement: when it comes to the NFP, who can hold up better—central bank buying or retail long positions?
If the NFP comes in below expectations and gold rebounds, do you think the majority of longs (over 70%) will take the opportunity to add more, or will you exit while the chance is there?
My take: this doesn’t look like a “step-up” ground being set before a breakout; it’s more like support is being slowly consumed. The more crowded the longs get, the more incremental capital is needed to push price higher; downward only needs a single stop-loss cascade to trigger a drop. The 4307 area has been repeatedly mentioned as a dense pressure zone. Once 4159 is broken, those who run slowly will be forced into a passive transfer of positions.
On the other hand, some people say there’s continuous buy support below, and that a volume-increasing sell-off hasn’t managed to break through. Gold itself is also being pressured by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.2% and the USD at 101–102. The 4200 to 4300 zone above is viewed as a pressure range. All these views point to the same disagreement: when it comes to the NFP, who can hold up better—central bank buying or retail long positions?
If the NFP comes in below expectations and gold rebounds, do you think the majority of longs (over 70%) will take the opportunity to add more, or will you exit while the chance is there?