Bitcoin once surged to $85,500, but it lost that level the same day and fell back below $84,000. The trigger was the data: U.S. August core PCE rose only 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year, both below expectations. Overall PCE year over year fell to 3.4% (July was 3.7%).
But on the same day, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 5.2%, which is in the highest range since 2007. The probability of a rate hike in October dropped from about 70% at the start of the week to about 35%. Yet the 5.2% “risk-free” rate itself is the strongest opponent for $BTC .
So I tend to believe that the real ceiling for this move isn’t the number 85,000, but the yield curve. As long as long-end yields don’t come down, every time price pushes higher is effectively handing out more chips to the trapped longs at the top.
Do you think what conditions 85,000 needs to hold—should we wait for the Fed to turn dovish, or do we need the next, tougher narrative?$BTC #Bitcoin breaks below $84,000
But on the same day, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 5.2%, which is in the highest range since 2007. The probability of a rate hike in October dropped from about 70% at the start of the week to about 35%. Yet the 5.2% “risk-free” rate itself is the strongest opponent for $BTC .
So I tend to believe that the real ceiling for this move isn’t the number 85,000, but the yield curve. As long as long-end yields don’t come down, every time price pushes higher is effectively handing out more chips to the trapped longs at the top.
Do you think what conditions 85,000 needs to hold—should we wait for the Fed to turn dovish, or do we need the next, tougher narrative?$BTC #Bitcoin breaks below $84,000