Tonight at 20:30 (US time), the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and the market is set to face another round of volatility.
Current market expectations:
Non-Farm Payrolls added: about +90,000
Unemployment rate: around 4.1%
Wage growth: about 3.1%–3.2%
But traders won’t just look at “the number of jobs added.”
What truly affects the market are three questions:
How many jobs are companies still creating? This helps determine whether the U.S. economy is continuing to cool.
Is the unemployment rate rising noticeably? This indicates whether the labor market is beginning to deteriorate, and it’s also a key focus for the Federal Reserve.
Is wage growth slowing down? This determines whether inflation pressure is easing, which in turn affects expectations for rate cuts.
If the data is stronger than expected:
The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may rise
Rate-cut expectations could cool, and gold and risk assets may face pressure
If the data is weaker than expected:
The U.S. dollar may come under pressure
Gold, tech stocks, and crypto assets may get a boost
One employment report could change market views on the Fed’s next move.
#QQQ $XAUT #SPX $BTC
Current market expectations:
Non-Farm Payrolls added: about +90,000
Unemployment rate: around 4.1%
Wage growth: about 3.1%–3.2%
But traders won’t just look at “the number of jobs added.”
What truly affects the market are three questions:
How many jobs are companies still creating? This helps determine whether the U.S. economy is continuing to cool.
Is the unemployment rate rising noticeably? This indicates whether the labor market is beginning to deteriorate, and it’s also a key focus for the Federal Reserve.
Is wage growth slowing down? This determines whether inflation pressure is easing, which in turn affects expectations for rate cuts.
If the data is stronger than expected:
The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may rise
Rate-cut expectations could cool, and gold and risk assets may face pressure
If the data is weaker than expected:
The U.S. dollar may come under pressure
Gold, tech stocks, and crypto assets may get a boost
One employment report could change market views on the Fed’s next move.
#QQQ $XAUT #SPX $BTC
