🚨 A new significant development to add to the WTI positioning: another tanker was struck and caught fire right in the Strait of Hormuz. The previous score 🟢58 / 🔴42 → the new score 🟢59 / 🔴41.
Hormuz – PHYSICAL SECURITY / LOGISTICS → 🟢 Bullish +1. UKMTO Warning 147-26 recorded at 17:50 UTC on 1/10 = 00:50 on 2/10 (Vietnam time): a tanker transiting through Hormuz was hit by an unidentified projectile and caught fire. The crew is safe;
What matters more than the individual ship is the repeatability of attacks. This incident follows strikes on 28–29/9, and JMIC currently maintains a SEVERE threat level for Hormuz, assessing that deliberate attacks are “highly likely.” This is evidence that transport risk has not cooled down at all, even though crude exports from the Gulf have rebounded strongly.
Score update: 58/42 → new tanker struck by a projectile and burning at Hormuz: +1 Bullish → 🟢59 / 🔴41.
On benchmark prices: the cleanest NYMEX level remains the WTI Nov-26 settlement at $92.87/bbl, up $2.45 (+2.71%) in the 1/10 session. In the new Globex session, the WTI Nov-26 contract board shows around $92.97, i.e. about +$0.10 (+0.11%) versus settlement. The source shows time 18:10 but does not specify a timezone, so I treat it as an indicative post-settlement quote, not a standard Reuters/Bloomberg timestamp. Brent Dec-26 has the latest clean settlement at $102.31/bbl, +4.4%;
One notable point the market may be overlooking: Gulf crude flow recovery does not mean Hormuz has been “normalized.” Kpler shows that non-Iranian Gulf crude exports in September rose to about 16.5 mb/d, but only around 60% of those barrels actually pass through Hormuz; the rest relies on the East-West Pipeline, UAE bypass routes, and STS logistics.
Current positioning: 🟢 Bullish 59 / 🔴 Bearish 41.
Hormuz – PHYSICAL SECURITY / LOGISTICS → 🟢 Bullish +1. UKMTO Warning 147-26 recorded at 17:50 UTC on 1/10 = 00:50 on 2/10 (Vietnam time): a tanker transiting through Hormuz was hit by an unidentified projectile and caught fire. The crew is safe;
What matters more than the individual ship is the repeatability of attacks. This incident follows strikes on 28–29/9, and JMIC currently maintains a SEVERE threat level for Hormuz, assessing that deliberate attacks are “highly likely.” This is evidence that transport risk has not cooled down at all, even though crude exports from the Gulf have rebounded strongly.
Score update: 58/42 → new tanker struck by a projectile and burning at Hormuz: +1 Bullish → 🟢59 / 🔴41.
On benchmark prices: the cleanest NYMEX level remains the WTI Nov-26 settlement at $92.87/bbl, up $2.45 (+2.71%) in the 1/10 session. In the new Globex session, the WTI Nov-26 contract board shows around $92.97, i.e. about +$0.10 (+0.11%) versus settlement. The source shows time 18:10 but does not specify a timezone, so I treat it as an indicative post-settlement quote, not a standard Reuters/Bloomberg timestamp. Brent Dec-26 has the latest clean settlement at $102.31/bbl, +4.4%;
One notable point the market may be overlooking: Gulf crude flow recovery does not mean Hormuz has been “normalized.” Kpler shows that non-Iranian Gulf crude exports in September rose to about 16.5 mb/d, but only around 60% of those barrels actually pass through Hormuz; the rest relies on the East-West Pipeline, UAE bypass routes, and STS logistics.
Current positioning: 🟢 Bullish 59 / 🔴 Bearish 41.