Tonight’s US Non-Farm Payrolls at 20:30.
Right now, market expectations are for September to add roughly 90,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%.
Why am I paying special attention this time?
Because there’s a very interesting contradiction in the market right now:
A few days ago, PCE came in milder than expected, and the market reduced expectations for the Fed to raise rates again—BTC even briefly broke back above $85,000.
In theory, this should be an environment where risk assets like this.
But here’s the problem—
US long-term Treasury yields simply didn’t behave and fall.
At one point, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 5.34%, reaching the highest level since 2002.
As a result, BTC climbed—after inflation cooled—up to about $85,500, but then it gave back a lot of those gains.
This is actually telling me something:
In crypto right now, maybe you can’t just look at whether the Fed will raise rates.
Long-term yields are the other elephant in the room.
Another thing I’m watching is the ETF.
Earlier, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the cumulative amount nearing $3 billion.
But in the latest trading day, it recorded about a $149 million net outflow, ending the streak of consecutive inflows.
I don’t think the outflow in a single day should be over-interpreted.
What’s really worth watching is this:
If the ETF continues to receive incoming funds, but BTC still can’t break out effectively, then it suggests these buys may only be absorbing the market’s existing sell pressure—not creating a new, trend-driven demand.
These two scenarios are very different.
So for tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls, I won’t look at only:
“Higher than expected = down”
“Lower than expected = up”
I’ll look at them together:
Non-Farm Payrolls → wages → US Treasury yields → the US dollar → BTC → ETF fund flows
If the Non-Farm Payrolls are slightly weak, wages don’t pick up again, and long-term Treasury yields start to move down for real, then I’d think that’s more important for crypto than just a pretty Non-Farm Payrolls number.
On the other hand,
If the Non-Farm Payrolls are very strong, wages come in above expectations, the market raises Fed rate-hike expectations again, and on top of that the 10-year yield keeps trending higher,
then what BTC is facing won’t be just simple “data-driven volatility,”
but the discount rate for the entire risk-asset complex moving back up.
So at 20:30 tonight, what I really want to see isn’t where the first BTC candlestick will go.
It’s what happens after the data release—about 15 to 30 minutes later:
Which direction do Treasury yields actually move?
That may be the real answer tonight.
$BTC $IEFA.ETF
Right now, market expectations are for September to add roughly 90,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%.
Why am I paying special attention this time?
Because there’s a very interesting contradiction in the market right now:
A few days ago, PCE came in milder than expected, and the market reduced expectations for the Fed to raise rates again—BTC even briefly broke back above $85,000.
In theory, this should be an environment where risk assets like this.
But here’s the problem—
US long-term Treasury yields simply didn’t behave and fall.
At one point, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 5.34%, reaching the highest level since 2002.
As a result, BTC climbed—after inflation cooled—up to about $85,500, but then it gave back a lot of those gains.
This is actually telling me something:
In crypto right now, maybe you can’t just look at whether the Fed will raise rates.
Long-term yields are the other elephant in the room.
Another thing I’m watching is the ETF.
Earlier, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the cumulative amount nearing $3 billion.
But in the latest trading day, it recorded about a $149 million net outflow, ending the streak of consecutive inflows.
I don’t think the outflow in a single day should be over-interpreted.
What’s really worth watching is this:
If the ETF continues to receive incoming funds, but BTC still can’t break out effectively, then it suggests these buys may only be absorbing the market’s existing sell pressure—not creating a new, trend-driven demand.
These two scenarios are very different.
So for tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls, I won’t look at only:
“Higher than expected = down”
“Lower than expected = up”
I’ll look at them together:
Non-Farm Payrolls → wages → US Treasury yields → the US dollar → BTC → ETF fund flows
If the Non-Farm Payrolls are slightly weak, wages don’t pick up again, and long-term Treasury yields start to move down for real, then I’d think that’s more important for crypto than just a pretty Non-Farm Payrolls number.
On the other hand,
If the Non-Farm Payrolls are very strong, wages come in above expectations, the market raises Fed rate-hike expectations again, and on top of that the 10-year yield keeps trending higher,
then what BTC is facing won’t be just simple “data-driven volatility,”
but the discount rate for the entire risk-asset complex moving back up.
So at 20:30 tonight, what I really want to see isn’t where the first BTC candlestick will go.
It’s what happens after the data release—about 15 to 30 minutes later:
Which direction do Treasury yields actually move?
That may be the real answer tonight.
$BTC $IEFA.ETF