Brent is still holding above $100, and a supply-side figure—one that’s been largely ignored—is rewriting the narrative.
According to Kpler estimates cited in public discussions, by mid-September crude oil exports from Middle East Gulf producers (excluding Iran) have already recovered to at least 16.5 million barrels per day, with roughly 40% no longer transiting through the Strait of Hormuz—a level that was only 17% before the war. This figure still needs verification from multiple sources.
If it holds true, it would mean that the recovery in supply itself can cut back part of the premium, without having to wait for a U.S.-Iran handshake.
The bulls’ case also has merit: diesel is up to $6.5, heating oil is up 74%, and strategic reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 1982—tightness in refined products is proving to be firmer than crude.
Meanwhile, less than 40 days ahead of the election, some say the White House is inclined to freeze the options it has until after November 3—lots of tough talk, few real actions.
On the other side, market chatter suggests that when prices move sideways, open interest nonetheless keeps rising; breakout days on reduced volume are being read as a potential bear trap, and the prior low has become the watershed between bulls and bears.
So the question is: if 40% of Gulf crude has already bypassed Hormuz, how much of the $100 price tag is actually paying for fear of a supply cutoff?
According to Kpler estimates cited in public discussions, by mid-September crude oil exports from Middle East Gulf producers (excluding Iran) have already recovered to at least 16.5 million barrels per day, with roughly 40% no longer transiting through the Strait of Hormuz—a level that was only 17% before the war. This figure still needs verification from multiple sources.
If it holds true, it would mean that the recovery in supply itself can cut back part of the premium, without having to wait for a U.S.-Iran handshake.
The bulls’ case also has merit: diesel is up to $6.5, heating oil is up 74%, and strategic reserves have fallen to the lowest level since 1982—tightness in refined products is proving to be firmer than crude.
Meanwhile, less than 40 days ahead of the election, some say the White House is inclined to freeze the options it has until after November 3—lots of tough talk, few real actions.
On the other side, market chatter suggests that when prices move sideways, open interest nonetheless keeps rising; breakout days on reduced volume are being read as a potential bear trap, and the prior low has become the watershed between bulls and bears.
So the question is: if 40% of Gulf crude has already bypassed Hormuz, how much of the $100 price tag is actually paying for fear of a supply cutoff?