ETF single-day outflows of $148 million; nine-day net inflow records were broken on this day. Shouldn’t this be a top signal? But the very next day, Bitcoin surged straight through the September resistance level of 86,600.
The market didn’t even take that single-day outflow seriously. Over the past seven trading days, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows totaled $1.34 billion. Compared with that, the $148 million outflow is just a drop in the bucket—treated as routine fund rotation, not as demand exhaustion.
A common claim is that this move was forced by short-covering. The data doesn’t add up. OKX Bitcoin futures open interest over 43 hours rose from $3.08 billion to $3.18 billion, yet the funding rate stayed hovering around zero, even slightly negative. Deribit perpetuals were only modestly positive—open interest was increasing, but the rates weren’t going wild. Real money was adding positions; a squeeze can’t reliably sustain funding that steady.
The U.S. dollar index has climbed nearly 2% since August, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been pushed from 4.71% all the way up to 5.29%. This macro mix should, in theory, weigh on risk assets. Yet Bitcoin is still charging higher—this round of demand from both spot and institutional channels is tougher than the macro headwinds.
The SEC easing the headline on funds/advisers holding crypto assets, and Citigroup raising its Bitcoin target price—those are at most just extra fuel. What has truly been burning continuously is the $1.34 billion, quietly entering the market.
With $148 million outflow standing against $1.34 billion in net inflows, the arithmetic doesn’t balance out. I’m inclined to be bullish in the short term. Unless the dollar and yields genuinely team up to interrupt spot demand—and open interest is also cut down accordingly—this direction won’t change.
$BTC #ETF #Bitcoin
The market didn’t even take that single-day outflow seriously. Over the past seven trading days, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows totaled $1.34 billion. Compared with that, the $148 million outflow is just a drop in the bucket—treated as routine fund rotation, not as demand exhaustion.
A common claim is that this move was forced by short-covering. The data doesn’t add up. OKX Bitcoin futures open interest over 43 hours rose from $3.08 billion to $3.18 billion, yet the funding rate stayed hovering around zero, even slightly negative. Deribit perpetuals were only modestly positive—open interest was increasing, but the rates weren’t going wild. Real money was adding positions; a squeeze can’t reliably sustain funding that steady.
The U.S. dollar index has climbed nearly 2% since August, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been pushed from 4.71% all the way up to 5.29%. This macro mix should, in theory, weigh on risk assets. Yet Bitcoin is still charging higher—this round of demand from both spot and institutional channels is tougher than the macro headwinds.
The SEC easing the headline on funds/advisers holding crypto assets, and Citigroup raising its Bitcoin target price—those are at most just extra fuel. What has truly been burning continuously is the $1.34 billion, quietly entering the market.
With $148 million outflow standing against $1.34 billion in net inflows, the arithmetic doesn’t balance out. I’m inclined to be bullish in the short term. Unless the dollar and yields genuinely team up to interrupt spot demand—and open interest is also cut down accordingly—this direction won’t change.
$BTC #ETF #Bitcoin