[Leek Self-Defense Manifesto · Part Three · Battle Situation Tracking]

First, I need to correct one piece of data: the fault is mine—I must admit it. In yesterday’s recap (replay archive), I cited an old market news item without a date stamp, saying BTC fell back to 75,500. Today I cross-checked using four independent market sources: September 24: 84,179; September 30 close: 83,563; and October 2 current price: around 84,000. —BTC has never fallen to 75,500. That was ancient outdated data, and I used it without verifying the date. That is my mistake. After correcting it, the conclusion is actually even firmer: the short position at 79,400 from September 18 to today has never had a single day where the price returned below the entry price. For three straight weeks, it has been continuously floating at a loss of roughly 5% to 6%. Even the “hindsight-picking-right” consolation prize has never been issued.

Data can be wrong; the books don’t lie: his records show no profit from 79,400 at any point over three weeks. That trade lived only in his spoken commentary from beginning to end.

I. The two-faced magic trick of 9.18: bullish in the post, bearish on the livestream. I checked all of his public records from September 18: that day, he posted on Binance Square, “9.18 #BTC intraday market analysis, long position making big profits! Trading is actually very simple,” with an image saying, “Long profits are growing!”—yet on that very same September 18, he called a short at 79,400 in his livestream. One market move, two hole cards: bullish in the post, bearish on the livestream. If the price rose, he could pin the post: “Look at my profitable long”; if it fell, he could share a livestream clip: “Look at my perfectly timed short.” That’s far more sophisticated than deleting posts—he doesn’t have to delete a thing, because he said both things from the start. You think you’re following his trades, but really you’re an audience member at a hedged poker table: the house bets both ways, and your admiration is its chips. This also explains why there’s still no standalone post about his 9.18 “short call” on his Square homepage—the short existed only in the livestream and in followers’ screenshots, there when useful and gone when not, always easy to explain away.

II. A dictionary of take-profit rhetoric: his windfall, your bill. A verbatim collection of his take-profit quotes from those three weeks: 9.22: “Wake up and find your position gone? Turns out it automatically took profit?”; 9.25: “Back in for round two, successfully made it back! If it’s time to take profit, take profit first”; 9.30: “85,100, short-term profits taken! Calculated across a consolidation wave, the profit could even reach 10,000 points.” It all sounds like a windfall. But how did it feel to hear the words “take profit” on September 30, if you’d followed his short at 79,400 on September 18? The price was 7.2% above your entry, and he announced he’d taken profit. There’s no account statement to be found for any of the trades he says he closed for profit; every position of yours that got liquidated has a liquidation record. Incidentally, his exact words on 9.23 were: “I won’t wait until after a rise or fall to tell you! What the hell is the point of posting that kind of hindsight content? I’m cocky, but I’m right!”—and yet the very thing he relies on is announcing it after the fact.

III. The income structure he showed off himself: it all comes from you. All the evidence in this section comes from his own posts. On 9.23, he publicly showed his tip income: “Nearly 120,000 U. Round that off, and it’s about the price of a house in a small county town”; an earlier livestream data card showed $4,124 in revenue from a single session, with 76 fans sending gifts; his Square bio features a referral code for 20% off fees; and he also has “all you distinguished VIP bros” (his exact words—after the revenue-sharing mechanism changed, he said he “wouldn’t get a single penny,” got so angry he “sold all the BNB I had”). His Square homepage: 180,000 followers, with a verification label reading “TOP 300 by trading volume.” Who contributed that trading volume? His followers. The four-part income package: tips, gifts, referral commissions, and VIPs—every stream starts in his followers’ pockets. When he shows off his income, he does so with complete confidence. What you may not have realized is that it’s not a display of his spoils—it’s a summary of your bill.

IV. The birth of “Mr. Guaranteed Short”: turning losses into traffic. On October 1, he posted: “With a bearish divergence, if the breakout condition is met and the drop-back condition is met, then go short! It’s not just that you can short—it’s a guaranteed short!—yours truly, the invincible Mr. Guaranteed Short.” He turned his own underwater position into a character gag, and the comments filled with “Mr. Guaranteed Short is a legend.” This is the highest form of the business: even losses can be turned into traffic. Notice the wording—“if the breakout condition is met and the drop-back condition is met, then go short”: if the price rises, he says the breakout condition was met; if it falls, the drop-back condition was met; if it goes sideways, he says to wait for the conditions. An if-then statement that can never be wrong, paired with a livestream that’s always on. You laugh at his “guaranteed short” act; he thanks you for the views.

Conclusion: three questions. For three weeks, a 79,400 short never had a profitable day; during the 9.18 market move, he showed two hole cards; a whole repertoire of take-profit talk, without a single account statement; an income structure funded entirely by followers. Next time he calls a trade—whether the copy says “short if conditions are met” or “long position in profit”—ask three questions: Which of his hole cards is real? Does he have an account statement showing those take-profits? Does his income have anything to do with you? If he can’t answer all three, you’re not following a trade—you’re watching a script.

That’s the end of Part Three of the Retail Investor Self-Defense Manifesto. Parts One and Two are on the homepage.

Data sources: firsthand checks of X@BTC563 and the Binance Square homepage (10.2); market data cross-checked via Investing/Moomoo/BingX/Bitcoin.com. This is commentary on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.