US Treasuries at 5.25% stuck at the top, BTC holds up with a hard defense from a $100M ETF
🔻 Macro pressure
Just checked US Treasuries: 10Y yields are currently at 5.253%, with intraday price action churning in the upper range on the daily chart (recently touched 5.347%). The KDJ is dulled and won’t turn back. Rates are moving sideways above 5.25%, keeping the valuation of risk assets under pressure—this is the backdrop behind the “big pie” pullback from 85.6k.
🔻 Liquidity split
But BTC has its own confidence: yesterday’s spot ETF net inflows were 103 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT provided a daily backstop of 196 million—institutions are replenishing decisively. In contrast, ETH ETF outflows were 55.37 million (withdrawn for 3 straight days), making the “second pie” weak. In the order book, BTC sees sell-side pegged at 73%, with heavy overhead supply near the prior high at 85k (85,649). SAR support sits at 83,233. ETH at 2,715 is lagging in its upswing.
🔻 Non-Farm payrolls set the tone
Tonight’s unemployment rate expectation is 4.1%. If Treasuries don’t retreat below 5.0% and ETF inflows don’t keep coming, BTC will effectively lock itself inside the 83k–85.6k box. For the long term: a strong Q3 seasonality line plus institutions picking sides in favor of the big pie. For the short term: don’t chase before the Non-Farm data—wait to see whether there’s a pullback with support holding around 83k, or whether there’s volume that breaks above 85.6k.
Treasuries pressing down, ETFs propping up—tonight’s Non-Farm: do you think it’s “bad news already priced in,” or another sell-off? 👇
BTC #ETH
🔻 Macro pressure
Just checked US Treasuries: 10Y yields are currently at 5.253%, with intraday price action churning in the upper range on the daily chart (recently touched 5.347%). The KDJ is dulled and won’t turn back. Rates are moving sideways above 5.25%, keeping the valuation of risk assets under pressure—this is the backdrop behind the “big pie” pullback from 85.6k.
🔻 Liquidity split
But BTC has its own confidence: yesterday’s spot ETF net inflows were 103 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT provided a daily backstop of 196 million—institutions are replenishing decisively. In contrast, ETH ETF outflows were 55.37 million (withdrawn for 3 straight days), making the “second pie” weak. In the order book, BTC sees sell-side pegged at 73%, with heavy overhead supply near the prior high at 85k (85,649). SAR support sits at 83,233. ETH at 2,715 is lagging in its upswing.
🔻 Non-Farm payrolls set the tone
Tonight’s unemployment rate expectation is 4.1%. If Treasuries don’t retreat below 5.0% and ETF inflows don’t keep coming, BTC will effectively lock itself inside the 83k–85.6k box. For the long term: a strong Q3 seasonality line plus institutions picking sides in favor of the big pie. For the short term: don’t chase before the Non-Farm data—wait to see whether there’s a pullback with support holding around 83k, or whether there’s volume that breaks above 85.6k.
Treasuries pressing down, ETFs propping up—tonight’s Non-Farm: do you think it’s “bad news already priced in,” or another sell-off? 👇
BTC #ETH
