It’s Friday. Since today is Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the market could see relatively big fluctuations. But because I’m going out today to improve my life, I may not be able to go live in time for the NFP release. I’ll go ahead and give you a preview of what the NFP numbers might mean tonight, so that after the release it won’t feel like everyone is wandering around like headless flies.
Also, if I can’t go live promptly tonight, I’ll sync up with everyone and discuss it in the chat room.
This NFP is still quite impactful for October’s rate-hike outlook. I’m mainly watching two things:
1. Unemployment rate: forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
Let’s talk about the unemployment rate first. If it’s higher than 4.1%, it means the job market is cooling down, reducing pressure for the Fed to keep raising rates—generally bullish for the crypto market.
If it’s lower than 4.1%, it means the labor market is tighter, giving the Fed more reason to stay hawkish—generally bearish for the crypto market.
2. Non-Farm Payrolls added: forecast 90k, previous 162k
For NFP additions, if it’s higher than the forecast of 90k, that’s bearish for crypto as well, because—> employment is stronger than the market expects → the Fed has more confidence to maintain high rates or even continue hiking → U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are firmer → BTC/ETH face pressure.
If it’s below 90k, that indicates cooling employment → lower rate-hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are weaker → BTC/ETH benefit.
The most bullish combination tonight is NFP <9 0k + unemployment rate >4.1%.
The most bearish combination tonight is NFP >90k + unemployment rate <4.1%.
The most likely “needle in the haystack” scenario is when one comes in strong and the other weak—e.g., NFP is 150k, but the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. With one strong and one weak, the market will quickly trade back and forth.
Based on the data already released this week: ADP was 90k, above the forecast of 70k, and initial jobless claims were only 197k. This suggests employment hasn’t broken down meaningfully yet. So I still lean toward the probability that tonight’s NFP will come in slightly above 90k.
As for the specific figures, we’ll know once they’re out. If I can make it back in time, I’ll go live and watch it with everyone online. If I can’t make it back, I’ll chat with you guys in the chat room. And if you haven’t joined the chat room yet, remember to click on my avatar—add the chat room from your personal center. If there’s any reward/commission or you need to re-bind for rewards, add me as a friend in the chat room.
Also, if I can’t go live promptly tonight, I’ll sync up with everyone and discuss it in the chat room.
This NFP is still quite impactful for October’s rate-hike outlook. I’m mainly watching two things:
1. Unemployment rate: forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
Let’s talk about the unemployment rate first. If it’s higher than 4.1%, it means the job market is cooling down, reducing pressure for the Fed to keep raising rates—generally bullish for the crypto market.
If it’s lower than 4.1%, it means the labor market is tighter, giving the Fed more reason to stay hawkish—generally bearish for the crypto market.
2. Non-Farm Payrolls added: forecast 90k, previous 162k
For NFP additions, if it’s higher than the forecast of 90k, that’s bearish for crypto as well, because—> employment is stronger than the market expects → the Fed has more confidence to maintain high rates or even continue hiking → U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are firmer → BTC/ETH face pressure.
If it’s below 90k, that indicates cooling employment → lower rate-hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are weaker → BTC/ETH benefit.
The most bullish combination tonight is NFP <9 0k + unemployment rate >4.1%.
The most bearish combination tonight is NFP >90k + unemployment rate <4.1%.
The most likely “needle in the haystack” scenario is when one comes in strong and the other weak—e.g., NFP is 150k, but the unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. With one strong and one weak, the market will quickly trade back and forth.
Based on the data already released this week: ADP was 90k, above the forecast of 70k, and initial jobless claims were only 197k. This suggests employment hasn’t broken down meaningfully yet. So I still lean toward the probability that tonight’s NFP will come in slightly above 90k.
As for the specific figures, we’ll know once they’re out. If I can make it back in time, I’ll go live and watch it with everyone online. If I can’t make it back, I’ll chat with you guys in the chat room. And if you haven’t joined the chat room yet, remember to click on my avatar—add the chat room from your personal center. If there’s any reward/commission or you need to re-bind for rewards, add me as a friend in the chat room.
