A counterfeit run can surge dozens of times, yet most people still lose money. The reason isn’t the market—it’s how people participate in those “dozens of times.”
First, what you earn is “the segment you hold,” not “the segment it has traveled.” A single K-line may move from the low to the high by 50x, but you often don’t buy at 1x—you only dare to enter at 5x, 10x, or 20x. It might still rise further after that, but once it pulls back 30% or 40%, your cost becomes a pressure point. The main force builds its position where “nobody dares to buy.” You end up taking the bag where “everyone has confirmed the trend.” In essence, you and the main force aren’t participating in the same part of the行情.
Second, you can’t withstand the drawdown, but the main force uses drawdowns to shake out positions.
The real explosive uptrend is almost always accompanied by intense volatility. After rising 3x, it may draw down 40%, then surge another 5x and shake out half again—this is common in these copycat, low-cap “moonshot” projects. Most people, however, once they’re in the green, start to doubt: Is this the top? Is it about to go to zero? So they sell during the shakeout, and buy during the acceleration. After repeating this a few times, the trend may not be over—but your position is already gone.
Third, you hold “sentiment positions,” not “cycle positions.”
Sentiment positions work like this: when it rises, you want to add; when it falls, you want to run. You watch the screen all day, and every red candle reversal/green-to-red? (i.e., every bearish candle) feels like an alarm. Cycle positions are the opposite: they’re built when your emotions are at their lowest and the market is coldest. A drawdown is just a process—it isn’t the threat. Most people aren’t losing because they misread the direction; they lose because they use a short-term mindset to trade a medium- to long-term move.
Fourth, frequent switching is more deadly than missing the trade.
Many people go through this kind of loop: it rises and you didn’t buy, so you switch to the next one; right after you switch, the old one takes off again. The new one goes sideways or drops, your mindset breaks, and you switch again. It looks like you’re constantly chasing hot spots, but in reality you’re steadily raising your own cost and burning through your patience. Dozens-of-times moves are, in essence, the result of “the few who can hold on,” not the product of “most people trading frequently.”
The coin price hits an all-time high, and the community is cheering. But when you look back at your account, you realize you actually didn’t make much—or you’re still losing. This isn’t just your problem.
What the market truly rewards is never “the people who see it rising.” It’s the people who were already prepared before it rose—and who weren’t flushed out during the volatility.
First, what you earn is “the segment you hold,” not “the segment it has traveled.” A single K-line may move from the low to the high by 50x, but you often don’t buy at 1x—you only dare to enter at 5x, 10x, or 20x. It might still rise further after that, but once it pulls back 30% or 40%, your cost becomes a pressure point. The main force builds its position where “nobody dares to buy.” You end up taking the bag where “everyone has confirmed the trend.” In essence, you and the main force aren’t participating in the same part of the行情.
Second, you can’t withstand the drawdown, but the main force uses drawdowns to shake out positions.
The real explosive uptrend is almost always accompanied by intense volatility. After rising 3x, it may draw down 40%, then surge another 5x and shake out half again—this is common in these copycat, low-cap “moonshot” projects. Most people, however, once they’re in the green, start to doubt: Is this the top? Is it about to go to zero? So they sell during the shakeout, and buy during the acceleration. After repeating this a few times, the trend may not be over—but your position is already gone.
Third, you hold “sentiment positions,” not “cycle positions.”
Sentiment positions work like this: when it rises, you want to add; when it falls, you want to run. You watch the screen all day, and every red candle reversal/green-to-red? (i.e., every bearish candle) feels like an alarm. Cycle positions are the opposite: they’re built when your emotions are at their lowest and the market is coldest. A drawdown is just a process—it isn’t the threat. Most people aren’t losing because they misread the direction; they lose because they use a short-term mindset to trade a medium- to long-term move.
Fourth, frequent switching is more deadly than missing the trade.
Many people go through this kind of loop: it rises and you didn’t buy, so you switch to the next one; right after you switch, the old one takes off again. The new one goes sideways or drops, your mindset breaks, and you switch again. It looks like you’re constantly chasing hot spots, but in reality you’re steadily raising your own cost and burning through your patience. Dozens-of-times moves are, in essence, the result of “the few who can hold on,” not the product of “most people trading frequently.”
The coin price hits an all-time high, and the community is cheering. But when you look back at your account, you realize you actually didn’t make much—or you’re still losing. This isn’t just your problem.
What the market truly rewards is never “the people who see it rising.” It’s the people who were already prepared before it rose—and who weren’t flushed out during the volatility.