When the interest rate opened and touched 5.34%, crypto equity should have been cut first—but at the close it was $MSTR that pulled the premium further apart.
10/1 US cash session: The 10Y intraday high was about 5.34, closing near 5.24; the S&P ETF was only +0.18% to 763.99. $MSTR closed at 160.50 (+4.8%), versus the spot ETF $IBIT +1.3%, an excess of about +3.5 percentage points; miners $RIOT closed at 19.61 (-2.7%), a close-price divergence of roughly 7.5 percentage points between the coin-holders and the miners.
Daily (closing price): Keltner (EMA20, ATR20×1.5) upper band 161.53 / middle band 147.12, with the close nearly riding the upper band; RSI(14)=63.1, not yet in overbought; EMA12/26/50=153.32/142.84/132.69, price is above all three moving averages. Structurally, the 9/21 swing high at 168.50 is still overhead resistance; a break below EMA12 around 153.3 would signal that this strong closing momentum has failed. Next target is near the Keltner middle band around 147.
The rate shock faded during the session, but that doesn’t mean the leveraged premium has been fully priced in—whether it continues to press the upper band or falls back into the moving-average band to digest it, both interpretations can be justified.
#美股 #MSTR #technical analysis
10/1 US cash session: The 10Y intraday high was about 5.34, closing near 5.24; the S&P ETF was only +0.18% to 763.99. $MSTR closed at 160.50 (+4.8%), versus the spot ETF $IBIT +1.3%, an excess of about +3.5 percentage points; miners $RIOT closed at 19.61 (-2.7%), a close-price divergence of roughly 7.5 percentage points between the coin-holders and the miners.
Daily (closing price): Keltner (EMA20, ATR20×1.5) upper band 161.53 / middle band 147.12, with the close nearly riding the upper band; RSI(14)=63.1, not yet in overbought; EMA12/26/50=153.32/142.84/132.69, price is above all three moving averages. Structurally, the 9/21 swing high at 168.50 is still overhead resistance; a break below EMA12 around 153.3 would signal that this strong closing momentum has failed. Next target is near the Keltner middle band around 147.
The rate shock faded during the session, but that doesn’t mean the leveraged premium has been fully priced in—whether it continues to press the upper band or falls back into the moving-average band to digest it, both interpretations can be justified.
#美股 #MSTR #technical analysis
