Many people are trying to describe the major drawdown at the beginning of 2023, attempting to fit today’s market conditions using historical price action.
But what I want to say is:
History can rhyme, but it doesn’t simply repeat.
I’m more inclined to believe that we are still in Stage D. However, before the target area is fully reached, the market may not necessarily replicate that year’s deep drawdown.
So, you can reference history, but don’t let it constrain you.
Past price action can help us understand the market’s rhythm, but it cannot become a script for predicting the future.
Price movements may look similar, but the rhythm may not be the same; structure can be replicated, but the path won’t be exactly repeated.
What truly matters in trading isn’t finding a historical copy, but continuously adjusting your judgment based on current price, structure, and changes in capital.
In her early years, an old lady had some spare money, so she bought a few pieces of gold in advance and hid them away.
Others thought she didn’t need to, and even mocked her: “Buying this so expensive now—there’ll be plenty of chances later.”
But she was thinking simply: money will keep growing, while truly scarce things won’t just increase out of thin air.
Many things look very expensive when you look at them from the present, but when you view them within the broader trend, they may only be the early stage of price discovery.
This principle also holds for Bitcoin.
The 21 million coin cap won’t change, while fiat money supply will always face long-term pressure to expand.
What really matters isn’t trying to guess the next candlestick, but understanding the long-term supply-and-demand logic.
What stings is this—if this trend continues, in the next bear market we may truly find it hard to see BTC again below $100,000.
So don’t always focus on buying at the lowest point. Understand the trend—it's more important than trying to predict the price.
🎬 With Q4 starting off, there’s no “Uptober”—the market begins pricing in risks first
BTC is currently around $83.4–84.3K, ETH around $2.7K, SOL around $119.
Yesterday’s PCE data came in below expectations: Headline 3.4% YoY, Core 3.0%.
BTC briefly surged to $85.5K, but then pulled back to around $84K. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets.
🔴 Nine straight days of ETF gains end
September 30: BTC ETF −$148.7M, ETH ETF −$59.6M, SOL ETF −$12.5M
Total: about −$221M.
Strong inflows have cooled temporarily, but it’s not yet enough to suggest the institutional trend has reversed.
🏛 CFTC eyes prediction markets
The CFTC submitted two draft rule proposals to OIRA, covering event contracts and their regulatory scope.
The key question is straightforward: for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, should regulation fall under the federal CFTC or state-level regulators?
For now, it’s only in the rulemaking stage—not the final rules.
⚠️ MetaMask pauses some validators
After detecting a security incident affecting infrastructure, MetaMask began exiting some impacted Ethereum staking validators.
No direct threats to users’ wallets have been found at this time. The company is treating the related actions as a precaution.
💥 Gate encounters a BEN trading error
Due to ticker confusion from the same token name, Gate mishandled BENUSDT perpetual funding-related adjustments, impacting about 200 accounts.
Gate says it will restore the related balances and take responsibility for the losses caused by the incident.
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC ≈ $83.4–84.3K ETH ≈ $2.68–2.72K SOL ≈ $118–119 BTC Dominance ≈ 58% Fear & Greed ≈ 68–74
🎯 On the first day of October, the market is waiting for a new direction.
PCE has given interest-rate-cut expectations a bit of room, but ETF flows have cooled temporarily, and Treasury yields remain elevated.
And tomorrow, the market will shift its focus to U.S. nonfarm payroll employment data.
A statement by Mist Founder Yu Xian (Cos) has revealed a major real-world challenge in anti-money laundering (AML) in the crypto industry. After tracking Bitget hackers’ money-laundering activities for hours, Cos found that cross-chain bridges such as Chainflip are not necessarily taking no interception action—but rather their AML/KYT response speed may already be too slow to keep up with the pace of hackers’ automated laundering.
How complex are hackers’ laundering paths? 🔴 Step 1: Automated splitting of funds Quickly break stolen assets into many smaller amounts, increasing the difficulty of tracing and identification. 🔴 Step 2: Multi-chain cross-bridge transfers Use different cross-chain bridges to distribute and move funds across multiple blockchains. Once a route is blocked by risk controls or funds are reverted, they immediately switch to another route. 🔴 Step 3: Convert to Bitcoin Continuously transfer assets via various on-chain channels, and ultimately convert the funds into BTC, further increasing the complexity of tracking. 🔴 Step 4: CoinJoin coin-mixing Use the CoinJoin transaction mixing mechanism to obscure links between funds, making subsequent tracing and identification harder.
⚠️ What’s truly worth关注 is not just how hackers launder money, but the speed gap between attack and defense. When hackers use automation programs to quickly split assets and switch cross-chain routes, risk identification, address tagging, and manual coordination-based risk control systems may fail to complete responses in time. This also means that simply blocking funds via a single cross-chain bridge is no longer enough to deal with highly automated, cross-chain coordinated laundering.
Security competition in the crypto industry is shifting from purely technical defenses to a comprehensive contest involving on-chain intelligence, real-time monitoring, automated risk control, and cross-platform collaboration. In the future, what deserves real attention is not only whether projects can recover funds after a hack, but also whether—during the critical window when funds are moving across chains—they can promptly identify risks and take action. #以太坊三季度涨70.9% $BTC
Tell a set of very interesting comparison data: Mid-September (three weeks ago): Fear & Greed Index: 48 (neutral, slightly fearful) BTC price: ~$72,000 ETF flows: continuous outflows Market sentiment: "The bear market isn’t over yet""It’s going to drop to 60,000"
Today (September 26): Fear & Greed Index: 74 (greedy) BTC price: ~$84,000 ETF flows: net inflows for 4 consecutive days, cumulative exceeding $2.8 billion Market sentiment: "The bull market is coming""Expect 100,000+ by year-end"
Over three weeks, the price rose 17%. Sentiment shifted from fear to greed, and the narrative changed from "the end of the bear market" to "the beginning of the bull market".
Is the price change big? Actually, it’s not that big—17% is nothing in crypto.
Is the sentiment change big? It’s a complete turnaround. That’s the most interesting—and most dangerous—part of the crypto market: When the price doesn’t move much, people’s minds have already gone through several rounds. People who were still saying "everything is about to collapse" last week may be shouting "all in" this week. Price is just the surface; sentiment is the amplifier. The hardest part of investing isn’t figuring out the market direction— it’s keeping your own rhythm amid the noise of emotions.
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🧧🧧🧧2026.10.02 Recap of the Primary Market Yesterday|Little Golden Dogs kept appearing, but it was all just a one-wave run. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥【Attached 20U Red Packets 🧧】 There were many Little Golden Dogs yesterday, but I still got slaughtered. 1. First, Bull-and-Horse Life and Comeback Life were split heavily—sure enough, everything got dumped in the morning. 2. The suan (swap) swings back and forth a lot. The first wave of staking arbitrage opportunities made 50U. In the morning, the BEAD generated by staking had already fallen from 0.5 to 0.1, and the annualized rate was down too—no real upside. 3. The real vs. fake milk dragon—Nailong is still a pig-butchering scam. Every so often it fires off once, and if it can’t hold for an hour, it gets quickly dumped. Nailoong managed to hold the 2M level, but I don’t look good on it. 4. BI and Four are weak and powerless, especially Four—the old chart, old narrative, gets dumped. 5. SI on Sol: last night, a brother went in with 8M, and now it’s down to 2M. Not sure if they’ve run yet. Looking at it, the “super artificial intelligence” narrative is too clichéd. 6. Trump is hosting another dinner—apparently there are 3 mysterious guests. Could they be Sun Ge, Jing Tian, and the Liangxi General? 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Using a Binance Wallet lets you enter an invite code in the invite-friends screen: CF1234. Save 30% on trading fees. Add me as a friend for an extra 10% personal subsidy 😉😉. If you don’t know how, go to the homepage chat room【Shitcoin King】 and ask.
🎁GIFT BOX🎁🧧 Citigroup raised its 12-month price target for Bitcoin to $113,000 and Ethereum to $3,028, citing heavy ETF inflows and institutional demand. While it's a strong vote of confidence for the crypto recovery, these numbers are still projections—the real test lies in how the market unfolds.
Yesterday resumed live streaming (calling 6 orders to eat 6 orders). Today is the second day. Today we called 3 orders to eat 3 orders, and we still have a 100% win rate.
Every day, we stream live from 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM. New and returning friends are welcome to join the live room.
(P.S. Slowly get back into shape, take care of your body, and only call trades at better positions—proceed steadily. Event contract isn’t my current main focus, but taking a look at the chart and trading orders is still not a problem.)
Keep improving yourself✨, starting with making progress a little every day💪. No flower starts out as a flower🌷.
Hard work is never wasted; all experiences will turn into the path beneath your feet🚶. Worldly experience is the confidence time gives you💛, every step shapes a better version of yourself🌟.
$ETH $BTC #Many people ask me about market conditions. To be honest, I really can’t find any reason to be bearish right now. There’s a rule that’s been circulating in the crypto world: bull runs last three years and bear markets last one. This bear market we’re in started last October, so the cycle is almost coming to an end.💥
Many people are still afraid of the price falling, but remember—when a bear market is nearing its end, any pullback isn’t a collapse; it’s an opportunity for you to get on board. The bigger trend can only be bullish from here on out. Every drop is a window to build your position in batches.🚨
Of course, you can’t be blindly optimistic either. Don’t go all-in. Even if the overall trend turns bullish, there will definitely be plenty of consolidation and “shakeout” in between. The big players will keep moving back and forth to harvest leveraged traders repeatedly. Never take on extremely high leverage to hold a position. If a sudden negative catalyst hits, you can easily get liquidated.🔥#
The transition from bull to bear (and vice versa) won’t happen overnight. It’s not like once a bear market ends, prices will just surge nonstop. Hold your coins patiently—don’t let yourself get shaken out by short-term fluctuations. When the market moves, hold steady. When opportunities drop low enough to buy, have the courage to lay out your plan and stick to your own position limits.💥
The market always has uncertainty. No market prediction is 100% accurate. You must control how much capital you投入 and only participate with money you can afford to lose. Be mentally prepared for potential losses.💥#美国10年期美债收益率逼近5.3% #美元指数创2025年5月来新高