National Day holiday for 7 days—does the crypto circle really have "holiday bonus"?
I summarized BTC for the National Day week (10.1–10.7) over the past 5 years.
Big winner 1 year, small win 1 year, sideways 1 year, down for 2 years first.
What makes money is October—not the National Day week.
1⃣ 2021: +23%, a god-tier week. After the 924 drop, BTC bounced from 44k to 54k, then climbed all the way to an all-time high of 69k on November 6—this is the so-called "National Day miracle" from this year.
2⃣ 2022: +4%, dead water in a bear market. The whole week churned around 20k, and about a month later, the FTX crash happened.
3⃣ 2023: ≈0%, got hit first. It broke below 26.5k during the week and then recovered; the real action came after the holiday. On October 23, ETF expectations ignited the market, and the whole month gained +28.6%.
4⃣ 2024: -4%, a black start to the door. An Iranian missile attack smashed BTC from 64k to 60k—an all-time brutal opening for the so-called "Uptober." But panic selling turned into a gold pit.
5⃣ 2025: +6%, made a new high first. A U.S. government shutdown plus risk-off sentiment pushed BTC to a new ATH of 126k; however, on October 10, a tariff black swan triggered liquidations of $19 billion, and the month closed at -3.92%.
Three patterns spotted:
1) 2013 data: In October, the first week averages only +1.1%. It’s the weakest week of the entire month, and the main uptrend segment happens in the second and third weeks.
2) The driver of the National Day week has never been the calendar—it’s events.
3) Falling during National Day week ≠ bad news. In 2023 and 2024, both "black openings" became gold pits.
This year, BTC started at 83k and September ended with a bullish candle up about 6%–7%.
My strategy: Don’t chase highs during the National Day week—save your ammo for mid-to-late October.
Happy holidays—and happy positioning too.
I summarized BTC for the National Day week (10.1–10.7) over the past 5 years.
Big winner 1 year, small win 1 year, sideways 1 year, down for 2 years first.
What makes money is October—not the National Day week.
1⃣ 2021: +23%, a god-tier week. After the 924 drop, BTC bounced from 44k to 54k, then climbed all the way to an all-time high of 69k on November 6—this is the so-called "National Day miracle" from this year.
2⃣ 2022: +4%, dead water in a bear market. The whole week churned around 20k, and about a month later, the FTX crash happened.
3⃣ 2023: ≈0%, got hit first. It broke below 26.5k during the week and then recovered; the real action came after the holiday. On October 23, ETF expectations ignited the market, and the whole month gained +28.6%.
4⃣ 2024: -4%, a black start to the door. An Iranian missile attack smashed BTC from 64k to 60k—an all-time brutal opening for the so-called "Uptober." But panic selling turned into a gold pit.
5⃣ 2025: +6%, made a new high first. A U.S. government shutdown plus risk-off sentiment pushed BTC to a new ATH of 126k; however, on October 10, a tariff black swan triggered liquidations of $19 billion, and the month closed at -3.92%.
Three patterns spotted:
1) 2013 data: In October, the first week averages only +1.1%. It’s the weakest week of the entire month, and the main uptrend segment happens in the second and third weeks.
2) The driver of the National Day week has never been the calendar—it’s events.
3) Falling during National Day week ≠ bad news. In 2023 and 2024, both "black openings" became gold pits.
This year, BTC started at 83k and September ended with a bullish candle up about 6%–7%.
My strategy: Don’t chase highs during the National Day week—save your ammo for mid-to-late October.
Happy holidays—and happy positioning too.
