US stocks repaired higher at Thursday’s close, but it is not a risk re-opening. S&P 7,666.45, +0.19%; Dow 50,926.56, +0.04%; Nasdaq 26,871.60, +0.04%. The 10-year yield briefly touched about 5.34% intraday (the highest since 2002) before pulling back to close at about 5.24%. Europe was weaker: FTSE around -1.7%, STOXX around -1.3%.
Asian spot markets are closed. Nikkei yesterday finished at 68,956.72, +3.30%; the DAX futures near contract closed overnight at 68,460, -550, still roughly 500 points below spot. S&P futures around 7,732, roughly flat. USD/JPY is around 158.0.
BTC is about 84,648, +1.3%, with a day high around 85,156. Brent futures are around 102.5. Reports that Chinese refineries paused October product-oil exports pushed oil prices back above 100. Gold is around 4,200.
Tonight 21:30 JST: the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Consensus is for an additional roughly 84,000 to 90,000 jobs; unemployment rate at 4.1%. The federal funds target has been at 3.75%–4.00%, and the probability of another rate hike in October has fallen from about 70% to about 35%. If payrolls come in above 100k and wage growth is not soft, the long end and the dollar would likely come back to pressure prices; if clearly weak, and the rate-hike timeline is pushed out, but oil is still supported and the rate-cut narrative won’t really get going.
If NFP is just close to consensus, will BTC move with the long-end rates, or will it carve out its own independent trend?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #US stocks
Not investment advice; trading involves risk.
Asian spot markets are closed. Nikkei yesterday finished at 68,956.72, +3.30%; the DAX futures near contract closed overnight at 68,460, -550, still roughly 500 points below spot. S&P futures around 7,732, roughly flat. USD/JPY is around 158.0.
BTC is about 84,648, +1.3%, with a day high around 85,156. Brent futures are around 102.5. Reports that Chinese refineries paused October product-oil exports pushed oil prices back above 100. Gold is around 4,200.
Tonight 21:30 JST: the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Consensus is for an additional roughly 84,000 to 90,000 jobs; unemployment rate at 4.1%. The federal funds target has been at 3.75%–4.00%, and the probability of another rate hike in October has fallen from about 70% to about 35%. If payrolls come in above 100k and wage growth is not soft, the long end and the dollar would likely come back to pressure prices; if clearly weak, and the rate-hike timeline is pushed out, but oil is still supported and the rate-cut narrative won’t really get going.
If NFP is just close to consensus, will BTC move with the long-end rates, or will it carve out its own independent trend?
#Binance #BTC #Crypto #市场分析 #US stocks
Not investment advice; trading involves risk.