In fact, Micron’s earnings report—along with NVIDIA’s major increase in its share repurchase authorization this week—both indicate the strength and potential of the current AI narrative.
Many people worry about a bubble, but bubbles always exist; it just depends on what stage the bubble is in. Based on the current situation, the bubble is still within a controllable range. And AI is the core growth driver of the global economy—so this bubble can continue to expand.
So over the next few quarters, the AI narrative will only diverge structurally across industries—raising the bar for companies with excellent earnings reports—but it will not directly burst.
Of course, as I always say: macro conditions determine whether the money you have is “expensive,” while earnings reports determine whether you should pay up for a company’s valuation. And now, the situation is such that “you want to pay up” and “money getting more expensive” happen at the same time—so various macro uncertainties have suppressed the upside of tech stocks.
Of course, this also isn’t all bad. If the macro factors prevent markets from running higher in the near term, and if the macro environment turns even stricter and trims valuations a bit, wouldn’t that be an even better opportunity to get in?
They say chasing after price increases is for the unlucky, but when prices are low, many people still don’t dare to buy—they can only wait helplessly for the moment of “Hello everyone, and that’s when things are truly good,” and then end up chasing higher. So perhaps the “unlucky” isn’t quite as deserving of sympathy as people think!#美国10年期美债收益率逼近5.3%
Many people worry about a bubble, but bubbles always exist; it just depends on what stage the bubble is in. Based on the current situation, the bubble is still within a controllable range. And AI is the core growth driver of the global economy—so this bubble can continue to expand.
So over the next few quarters, the AI narrative will only diverge structurally across industries—raising the bar for companies with excellent earnings reports—but it will not directly burst.
Of course, as I always say: macro conditions determine whether the money you have is “expensive,” while earnings reports determine whether you should pay up for a company’s valuation. And now, the situation is such that “you want to pay up” and “money getting more expensive” happen at the same time—so various macro uncertainties have suppressed the upside of tech stocks.
Of course, this also isn’t all bad. If the macro factors prevent markets from running higher in the near term, and if the macro environment turns even stricter and trims valuations a bit, wouldn’t that be an even better opportunity to get in?
They say chasing after price increases is for the unlucky, but when prices are low, many people still don’t dare to buy—they can only wait helplessly for the moment of “Hello everyone, and that’s when things are truly good,” and then end up chasing higher. So perhaps the “unlucky” isn’t quite as deserving of sympathy as people think!#美国10年期美债收益率逼近5.3%
