易琳Ten

Many people are trying to describe the major drawdown at the beginning of 2023,
attempting to fit today’s market conditions using historical price action.

But what I want to say is:

History can rhyme, but it doesn’t simply repeat.

I’m more inclined to believe that we are still in Stage D.
However, before the target area is fully reached, the market may not necessarily replicate that year’s deep drawdown.

So, you can reference history, but don’t let it constrain you.

Past price action can help us understand the market’s rhythm,
but it cannot become a script for predicting the future.

Price movements may look similar, but the rhythm may not be the same;
structure can be replicated, but the path won’t be exactly repeated.

What truly matters in trading isn’t finding a historical copy,
but continuously adjusting your judgment based on current price, structure, and changes in capital.

66

666

@muzamilabbas

The courage to buy the dip, and the rationality to avoid the top.

How much you earn is decided by the market; how much you lose is determined by yourself.

#BTC Why am I still firmly optimistic about the bull market?

Many people believe that with rate-hike expectations heating up, oil prices staying high, and US Treasury yields remaining at elevated levels, the market environment does not support a bull market.

So, they conclude that this rally is just a bull trap, and that fresh lows will appear afterward.

That’s fine—everyone has their own judgment.

But I’ve always believed that in the early stage of switching from bear to bull, it is often accompanied by massive disagreement and doubt.

I don’t believe that a real bull market must wait until external conditions stabilize, economic data improves across the board, and only then—after the FOMC meeting—when Waller signals a rate-cut direction, will the market officially get started.

If everyone waits until good news is already in place, data turns better, and the market is unanimously bullish before entering, then where would the market be at that point?

Do institutions really not know that rate hikes may continue in the future? Don’t they pay attention to the US10Y and US30Y Treasury yields, or the persistently high oil prices?

Since these risks are all on the table, why has BTC still managed to put out such a行情?

I won’t easily deny my own judgment just because there are bearish factors in the market. Of course, my judgment could also be wrong—ultimately it still needs the market’s price action to verify.

Let time give the answer.

Maybe a year from now, when Bitcoin breaks its all-time high again, market voices will gradually shift from doubt to belief, and more and more people will firmly start to think: the bull market really is here.

But by then, what stage of the bull market will the行情 be in?

The market always starts amid doubt, moves forward amid differences, and turns狂热 amid consensus.

I don’t need everyone to agree with my view right now.

I only need to keep independent thinking, respect market signals, manage risk well, and then let time verify everything.

What’s truly worth thinking about is not when everyone believes in the bull market, but whether—in a market still full of disagreement—you have your own judgment, and the ability to take the risk that comes with that judgment.

#BTC #Bitcoin #EarlyBullMarket #交易认知

📈 #BTC bull market may have quietly begun,
and you may currently be in the early
stage of a new round of market activity!
Many people are still watching from the sidelines,
wondering whether midterm elections,
future interest rate hikes, and
various policy news will trigger another
round of declines.
But there is one important signal in trading worth paying attention to: when bad news materializes and the market does not experience the expected sharp selloff, it is worth re-examining the market’s true ability to absorb selling.
❤ Thank you for your attention!

To grow the principal, you don’t rely on luck—you rely on discipline

If you don’t have much capital, really stop chasing charts blindly and making random trades.

The crypto market has never been a place where you can survive long-term by luck alone.

The smaller your principal, the less you can afford to be anxious.
The more you want to turn things around, the more you must restrain yourself.

Because the biggest advantage of small capital isn’t that you’re bold enough to gamble—it’s that you can control risk and still have a chance to start over.

Remember these 3 rules:

① Capital allocation—never go all-in

Divide your capital into three parts.

One part for short-term trades: when you have profit, take it off the table—don’t get greedy to the very end;
One part for waiting for trends: if the market hasn’t moved in your expected direction, be patient and wait;
The last part as a reserve: unless it’s truly necessary, never touch it lightly.

Always leave yourself a way to retreat.

② Only make money from what you can understand

If there’s no opportunity, stay in cash.
If there’s no signal, wait.

Not every candlestick is worth participating in,
And you don’t have to make money every day.

If you don’t understand the market, it’s better to miss it;
Only after you understand the opportunity should you act seriously.

Trading isn’t about who makes more moves—it’s about who makes fewer mistakes.

③ Take-profit and stop-loss must be executed

If you’re wrong, admit it.
If you’re in profit, reduce your position according to the plan.
If you’re at a loss, don’t mindlessly add just to average down.

The real danger has never been a single small loss.

It’s when you’re clearly wrong, but because you’re unwilling to accept it, you stubbornly turn a small loss into a big one.

No one can guarantee that every trade will be profitable.

But you can do this:

Keep small losses under control, hold onto profits, and never touch big losses.

Having a small principal isn’t scary.
What’s truly terrifying is trying to turn things around in a rush.

When you’re anxious, you chase the surge.
When you have a loss, you add.
When you get a win, you start getting greedy again.
In the end, your trading is completely taken over by emotions.

The real growth path for small capital has never been:

All-in → a sudden surge → a fortune overnight.

It should be:

First survive → control drawdowns → execute steadily → accumulate slowly → let compounding work.

So don’t always think about how much you’ll make on the next trade.

First ask yourself:

If this trade is wrong, what’s the maximum I can afford to lose?

In the end, trading isn’t about who’s most willing to gamble.
It’s about who can, through repeated fluctuations, keep their principal, keep their discipline, and keep their own rhythm.

Don’t be greedy. Don’t panic. Don’t gamble.

The first step in turning around with a small principal has never been making money—it’s learning how not to lose your chance first.