According to Jin10, CME FedWatch shows a 75.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 24.9%. The probability of no change by December is 20.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 61.3% and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.1%.
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Fed October Hold Probability Rises to 75.1%
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