Tonight in the US evening session, let’s look at two scary numbers first: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury climbed to 5.33%, the highest since 2002; UK long-dated bonds also touched 6%, not seen in thirty years. TLT fell 10% in the third quarter, hitting a historical low—if you trade Treasuries, this quarter is really brutal.

Meanwhile, Iran is still in the tug-of-war. In a TIME interview, Trump said outright, “There can never be peace with Tehran.” After the midterm elections, there could be further escalation in bombing. The good news is that Hormuz Strait oil exports have basically returned to pre-war levels—Brent is hovering around $100. But the refined products supply gap is widening. The US has even started pressuring France and Germany to release strategic stockpiles of diesel; otherwise, sanctions will be coming.

Here’s my take: at these yield levels, liquidity isn’t very friendly to $BTC , so it’s not easy for the short term to break out and run independently. But the scenario of an energy shock layered on fiscal hemorrhaging is, in the long run, actually favorable for hard assets. $ETH $SOL just follow the market’s rhythm—don’t rush to bottom-pick.

Before the election outcome is finalized, it’s very likely still a choppy/sideways market. Control your impulses and don’t max out your position size.

NFA DYOR

#BTC #ETH #SOL #宏观经济 #US Treasury yield