#美国初请失业金人数降至19.7万
This is not good news for the crypto market. The U.S. initial jobless claims have fallen to 197,000. On the surface, this is positive for the economy, but in today’s market environment, $BTC actually needs to be on high alert.
As of the week of September 26, U.S. initial jobless claims were 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000. Continuing claims also fell to 1.701 million, and the four-week average dropped to 200,000.
More importantly, this has been sustained at very low levels for quite a while.
So the question is: the more resilient the U.S. economy is, the less reason the Fed has to rush into easing.
Now the market is seeing three data points at the same time:
1. The U.S. Dollar Index hits a new high since May 2025;
2. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rises above 5.3%;
3. Initial jobless claims continue to hover around 200,000.
Putting these together means the U.S. “cost of capital” cannot really come down for now.
So the most awkward situation for BTC right now isn’t an economic recession.
It’s rather that:
The U.S. economy hasn’t gotten bad enough that it needs the Fed to step in and save it.
That’s also why today’s 197,000 shouldn’t be simply interpreted as bullish news for BTC.
The real big test is tomorrow—the U.S. September nonfarm payroll report.
If employment remains strong, while inflation and long-term Treasury yields also can’t be brought down, then BTC trying to keep breaking upward will face even more pressure.
On the other hand, if employment starts to cool meaningfully and Treasury yields fall, market expectations for an improvement in liquidity may finally take shape.
So don’t just watch the BTC price tonight.
Tomorrow, look at the nonfarm payrolls, employment, and—most importantly—how the 10-year Treasury yield moves.
This is not good news for the crypto market. The U.S. initial jobless claims have fallen to 197,000. On the surface, this is positive for the economy, but in today’s market environment, $BTC actually needs to be on high alert.
As of the week of September 26, U.S. initial jobless claims were 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000. Continuing claims also fell to 1.701 million, and the four-week average dropped to 200,000.
More importantly, this has been sustained at very low levels for quite a while.
So the question is: the more resilient the U.S. economy is, the less reason the Fed has to rush into easing.
Now the market is seeing three data points at the same time:
1. The U.S. Dollar Index hits a new high since May 2025;
2. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rises above 5.3%;
3. Initial jobless claims continue to hover around 200,000.
Putting these together means the U.S. “cost of capital” cannot really come down for now.
So the most awkward situation for BTC right now isn’t an economic recession.
It’s rather that:
The U.S. economy hasn’t gotten bad enough that it needs the Fed to step in and save it.
That’s also why today’s 197,000 shouldn’t be simply interpreted as bullish news for BTC.
The real big test is tomorrow—the U.S. September nonfarm payroll report.
If employment remains strong, while inflation and long-term Treasury yields also can’t be brought down, then BTC trying to keep breaking upward will face even more pressure.
On the other hand, if employment starts to cool meaningfully and Treasury yields fall, market expectations for an improvement in liquidity may finally take shape.
So don’t just watch the BTC price tonight.
Tomorrow, look at the nonfarm payrolls, employment, and—most importantly—how the 10-year Treasury yield moves.