Tonight’s US evening session— the real action isn’t in the crypto market; it’s in the bond market.
The US 10Y Treasury yield has climbed to 5.33%, the highest since 2002; it surged by 87 basis points in Q3—the worst quarter since 1994. TLT is down 10%, hitting a historical low. UK long-dated gilts have even touched 6%—something not seen in nearly thirty years.
Two main storylines: First, the Iran war is entering its eighth month. After Trump’s comments about potentially increasing strikes after the midterm elections, negotiations have broken down—Iran’s delegation was even driven out of New York. Brent is back above $100, and Hormuz oil flows have returned to pre-war levels, but the refined products shortfall keeps widening. Second, PCE year-over-year is 3.4%, and the Fed is speaking more and more like it’ll stay “higher for longer.”
$BTC is pretty awkward: both oil and gold are feeding on the war premium, while crypto prices are behaving themselves—still valuing like a risk asset. Where’s the promised digital gold? Big capital right now only recognizes a 5% risk-free interest rate. Does that sting?
My stance: Real yields are hovering around 3%, and liquidity isn’t loosening. Any high-beta rebound like $ETH $SOL is essentially bleeding on the edge of a knife. Don’t try to bet against the macro—let the bond market catch its breath first, and then talk about a bull market.
Stay disciplined and keep your ammunition.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #美债收益率 #地缘政治 #加密货币
The US 10Y Treasury yield has climbed to 5.33%, the highest since 2002; it surged by 87 basis points in Q3—the worst quarter since 1994. TLT is down 10%, hitting a historical low. UK long-dated gilts have even touched 6%—something not seen in nearly thirty years.
Two main storylines: First, the Iran war is entering its eighth month. After Trump’s comments about potentially increasing strikes after the midterm elections, negotiations have broken down—Iran’s delegation was even driven out of New York. Brent is back above $100, and Hormuz oil flows have returned to pre-war levels, but the refined products shortfall keeps widening. Second, PCE year-over-year is 3.4%, and the Fed is speaking more and more like it’ll stay “higher for longer.”
$BTC is pretty awkward: both oil and gold are feeding on the war premium, while crypto prices are behaving themselves—still valuing like a risk asset. Where’s the promised digital gold? Big capital right now only recognizes a 5% risk-free interest rate. Does that sting?
My stance: Real yields are hovering around 3%, and liquidity isn’t loosening. Any high-beta rebound like $ETH $SOL is essentially bleeding on the edge of a knife. Don’t try to bet against the macro—let the bond market catch its breath first, and then talk about a bull market.
Stay disciplined and keep your ammunition.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #美债收益率 #地缘政治 #加密货币