⚡ SHORT breakout confirmed by a closed 5m candle at the 1.16 level.
close 1.15 / level 1.16 · volume 0.65× / target 1.25×
📉 SHORT · $SUI (SUI/USDT) · downside scenario · context 15m, indicators 15m, trigger 5m
📉 Event: closed structural breakdown to the downside on 15m confirmed; retest on 5m has not occurred yet.
📊 MARKET
💵 Price: $1.1492 · 1h +0.40% · 24h -4.41%.
💧 Over 1h: volume $4,230,303.6187 · trades 33,614.
📊 M5 activity: volume $268,751.8057 · trades 2,876 · activity score 49/100.
📚 Order book ±1%: depth $1,293,617.4186 · spread 0.01%.
🛡️ DATA CHECK AND MARKET TYPE
✅ Data audit: passed · 5m passed · 15m passed.
✅ Market quality: passed.
🛡️ Risk assessment: BLOCKED · mandatory checks not passed · candle, volume, and level context not aligned; volume momentum is decreasing ❗
🏷️ Context: Spot · analytical hypothesis about a possible sale of an asset that is already in the Spot portfolio; a short position is not opened.
🧭 TECHNICAL PICTURE
🧭 Trigger status: the breakout event was published separately; a retest is needed to confirm the setup.
📉 Structural breakdown to the downside is confirmed.
🔎 Trigger check:
↩️ EMA50 retest: none ❗
🕯️ 5m close with rejection downward: none ❗
💧 Volume vs median: no data · filter not passed ❗
💰 Close: $1.1511.
🔵 Trigger level: $1.1575.
🕯️ 5m candlestick context: ⚠️ No suitable bearish zone for a candle check · reason: · No confirmed zone in this direction. ❗
📉 SHORT context: price below EMA50 and VWAP (15m).
📐 Price below EMA 21 of the selected context.
📊 Indicators of the selected context:
〽️ EMA 21: $1.1528 · price below
〽️ EMA 50: $1.1575 · price below
〽️ EMA 200: $1.162 · price below
⚖️ VWAP: $1.164 · price below
🌡️ RSI 14: 49.9
🧱 STRUCTURE AND PD ARRAY
🗓️ Senior filter 1D: mixed structure · neutral context · major swing levels: support $1.0108 · resistance $1.165. D1 sets the context, but does not invalidate the 15m zone and the 5m trigger.
📐 24h Dealing Range: $1.1271–$1.2049 · EQ $1.166 · price in Discount · source: closed 15m candles over the last 24h.
🧱 Verified OB/BB/PD Array not found in the required half of the range ❗
💎 For SHORT, Premium zones are considered (upper half of the range); Discount by itself does not strengthen the sell scenario. ❗
⚠️ SCENARIO BLOCKED: candle, volume, and level context are not aligned; volume momentum is decreasing; buyers keep the upper hand versus the SHORT scenario. Publication is subject to separate confirmation by the operator; the system did not approve the scenario.
🧭 Pilot Fibonacci model for SHORT · 15m: scenario canceled due to the 15m close beyond the 78.6% level.
📐 Down impulse: $1.1657 → $1.1271 · break of structure; body 2.39× the median · volume 3.33× the median.
↩️ Correction: 5 counter-trend candles · depth 88.3% · zone 38.2–61.8% ($1.1418–$1.151).
⚡ Early observation: 5m closed below $1.1405; we wait for the 15m close below this level for confirmation.
🛑 Pilot scenario canceled: 15m closed above $1.1574 (78.6% of the impulse).
🧪 This is a separate observation model: it currently does not change the auto-publication filters; probability is not calculated.
🎯 OBSERVATION PLAN
🔻 SHORT entry: 5m close below $1.1575 · wait for confirmation.
🛑 SHORT stop/cancel: 5m close above $1.1585.
🎯 TP1 SHORT · 1R: $1.1565 · theoretical level.
🏁 TP2 SHORT · 2R: $1.1555 · theoretical level.
⚠️ Premium zone not found; these levels are a technical fallback, not an OB/BB or a supply zone.
🔵 Confirmation: wait for a retest of EMA50 on 15m ($1.1575) and a 5m close below it with volume confirmation.
🛑 Cancel: 5m close above the confirmed swing high $1.1585.
🧪 STATISTICS
📈 Confirmed down impulses over 24h: 4 impulses.
🎲 Probability: numerical percentage not calculated — retest outcomes have not been accumulated and verified yet ❗
⚠️ Analytical draft, not a trading recommendation and not an offer of a trade. Verify levels against the chart and consider your own risk ❗
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