$ETH An ancient address moved. In the early hours, an old wallet that participated in ICOs in 2015 at a cost of $0.31 transferred 133,298 ETH (about $356 million) to a new address. With a cost of 0.31 and the current price around 2700, whether this is a long-term hold or a sell-off is worth watching.

On the other side, institutions are pulling back. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with about $59.58 million on September 30 alone, and Fidelity and Grayscale together withdrawing more than $50 million. Institutions retreating while retail investors rush in — the script feels familiar.

Macro conditions are also capping upside. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still around 5.3%, a high not seen since 2002, keeping risk asset valuations tightly suppressed; ETH and BTC remain highly correlated, and after BTC’s rally, it too has been pulled back by yields.

Technically, ETH has repeatedly tested 2747 without success, RSI has retreated from elevated levels, and upside room looks limited; for now it is barely holding above the 2691 SMA7. If the daily close falls below 2689, the first support at 2630 will likely come under pressure, and 2597 is the real next stop.

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