Early U.S. evening market open: macro news is dominated by two things— the Iran conflict and U.S. Treasury yields.
Trump gave an interview to TIME and said that after the midterm elections, bombing could intensify; at the negotiation table, Rubio reportedly directly drove Iran’s delegation out of New York. After eight months of fighting, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were hit one after another, and Brent crude climbed back above $100.
But there’s a twist: Trump claims to have “complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil exports have already returned to pre-war levels. Refined products are where things are truly tense— the U.S. keeps threatening to restrict exports unless France and Germany release strategic diesel reserves. This maneuver makes me shake my head.
$BTC is caught in the middle: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up to 5.33%, the highest since 2002; PCE inflation is 3.4%; rate cuts are basically off the table— in theory, that’s poison for risk assets. But AI capital expenditures are propping up sentiment— Japan is rolling out $140 billion to build data centers, and Tencent signed the largest overseas lease with Oracle.
My take: unless oil prices run away again, $BTC will keep trading in tandem with the U.S. stock market, oscillating together. The real “black swan” is a Middle East escalation that detonates a refined-products supply crisis— and then the smart money will be the one that runs first.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #美债 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency
Trump gave an interview to TIME and said that after the midterm elections, bombing could intensify; at the negotiation table, Rubio reportedly directly drove Iran’s delegation out of New York. After eight months of fighting, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were hit one after another, and Brent crude climbed back above $100.
But there’s a twist: Trump claims to have “complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil exports have already returned to pre-war levels. Refined products are where things are truly tense— the U.S. keeps threatening to restrict exports unless France and Germany release strategic diesel reserves. This maneuver makes me shake my head.
$BTC is caught in the middle: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up to 5.33%, the highest since 2002; PCE inflation is 3.4%; rate cuts are basically off the table— in theory, that’s poison for risk assets. But AI capital expenditures are propping up sentiment— Japan is rolling out $140 billion to build data centers, and Tencent signed the largest overseas lease with Oracle.
My take: unless oil prices run away again, $BTC will keep trading in tandem with the U.S. stock market, oscillating together. The real “black swan” is a Middle East escalation that detonates a refined-products supply crisis— and then the smart money will be the one that runs first.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #美债 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency