Long-end leads ahead of the nonfarm payrolls. In the U.S. Eastern session for the 10/1 note (as of 00:15 JST, not yet closed): the 10-year U.S. Treasury intraday high is 5.3423% (since 2002, surpassing the 5.328% from May 2007), and the 30-year is around 5.67%. S&P opened at 7671 (+0.25%) and then fell to 7634 (-0.23%) at about 10:32; the Dow was around 50700 (-0.3% to -0.4%); the Nasdaq erased gains of +0.46% to come near flat.

ISM Manufacturing for September came in at 54.5 (vs. 55.0 expected, prior 54.6), with input prices at 77.9 (prior 71.1). Initial jobless claims were 197k (-1k; prior revised to 198k; four-week average 200k). Continuing claims are around 1.701 million (lowest since March 2023, based on the “secondary market” definition). Brent has regained the 100 area, while WTI is around 92.

Micron’s FQ1 guidance: revenue 61.5B ± 1.5B, adjusted EPS 38.15; customer commitments rise to 32.0B. The stock price barely moved during the day. Spot BTC is around 83.5k–83.8k, with intraday roughly 83.1k–84.4k. U.S. spot ETF flows: Wednesday saw net outflows of 148.7M, ending a nine-day inflow streak (FBTC led the declines). Supply overhead: 85k; support below: 82.9k–83.1k.

Watch: Nonfarm payrolls at 21:30 JST on Friday. The 10-year at 5.30–5.35 is the equity/crypto discount rate.

Can 83k hold?

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