The alarm went off again. OPN is up +11.74% in 24 hours, but this is the second time the original signal failed. What does that mean? It means the prior long signal has already been invalidated (disproved) by price action, and people who chased in are now being used to pump the price up.

First look at volume and price. The volume ratio is only 0.7x—yes, it’s up, but trading volume hasn’t really kept up. The quality of this kind of rise is definitely questionable. Current price is 0.0609; the 24h range is 0.0524 to 0.0657. From the high, it has pulled back 7.88%—the pullback-and-rejection pattern is already showing. On the moving averages: MA7 is 0.0628, MA25 is 0.06295. The short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and price is still trading below the moving averages. RSI is only 32, which looks like oversold, but this oversold condition was created by the selloff—not a “buy-the-dip” signal.

Contract sentiment is the real focus. On the Square, among 29 posts, almost all are OPN contract call-and-go signals. The longs account for 24 posts, while the 24h long/short ratio for retail is 6.4x—this ratio is way too extreme. A bunch of people are going long in the 0.0620 to 0.0648 range, calling targets from 0.0650 to 0.0750, but the price is now 0.0609—these people are basically already fully trapped. Even worse, tomorrow 30.36 million tokens will unlock; the circulating supply will be only 18.2%. This selling pressure is a real, concrete concern.

In terms of action, my view is straightforward: don’t get involved now. If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to around 0.059 and confirm that it’s stabilizing, then consider it. Place the stop loss below 0.056. The target is to watch the 0.0657 resistance level, but don’t expect it to break through in one go. If you want to go short, 0.0628 to 0.063 around the moving averages is the short entry zone; stop loss at 0.0657, target 0.059. Current price is 0.0609 stuck in the middle—there are knives both above and below. Entering now is basically donating trading fees to the market.

On the eve of the unlock: longs are crowded, and volume is shrinking—this structure isn’t something I’m touching. You weigh it yourselves.

Quick data snapshot: current price 0.0609 | 24h +11.74% | volume ratio 0.7 | RSI 32

That’s all I’ll say—everyone watch the risks.

— 23:02 Market notes