#CLUSDT gồng mạnh nào anh em
🚨 A NEW data cluster has just been released at 21:00 Vietnam time, enough to shift the WTI balance. I slightly lowered from 🟢56 / 🔴44 to 🟢55 / 🔴45.
ISM Manufacturing for September — HEADLINE / MACRO → net 🔴 Bearish +1. ISM officially reported the US manufacturing PMI at 54.5, slightly lower than the 54.6 from the prior month and below the consensus around 55.0. However, the demand component inside the report looks quite healthy: New Orders 55.3, up 1.6 points; Employment 52.7, up 1.5; Backlog 56.4, up 4.6; Customers’ Inventories only 41.6 — a “too low” level that is typically favorable for future production. I view this portion as 🟢 Bullish +1 for oil demand outlook.
On the other hand, the more noteworthy part is that Prices Paid jumped from 71.1 to 77.9, while consensus was around 72.9. This is a major surprise and reinforces the risk of inflation/higher-for-longer, especially since Treasury yields are currently at very high levels. I score this 🔴 Bearish +2 via the Fed → yields/USD → pressure on commodities channel. But I don’t score it higher because ISM stated that part of the price increase comes from petroleum-based products due to the Middle East conflict; if we treat the entire Prices Paid as an independent macro shock, we would end up double-counting the oil shock we already accounted for earlier.
So this time the math is: Bullish +1 from demand − Bearish +2 from inflation/Fed = net Bearish +1. The balance 56/44 → 55/45.
🚨 A NEW data cluster has just been released at 21:00 Vietnam time, enough to shift the WTI balance. I slightly lowered from 🟢56 / 🔴44 to 🟢55 / 🔴45.
ISM Manufacturing for September — HEADLINE / MACRO → net 🔴 Bearish +1. ISM officially reported the US manufacturing PMI at 54.5, slightly lower than the 54.6 from the prior month and below the consensus around 55.0. However, the demand component inside the report looks quite healthy: New Orders 55.3, up 1.6 points; Employment 52.7, up 1.5; Backlog 56.4, up 4.6; Customers’ Inventories only 41.6 — a “too low” level that is typically favorable for future production. I view this portion as 🟢 Bullish +1 for oil demand outlook.
On the other hand, the more noteworthy part is that Prices Paid jumped from 71.1 to 77.9, while consensus was around 72.9. This is a major surprise and reinforces the risk of inflation/higher-for-longer, especially since Treasury yields are currently at very high levels. I score this 🔴 Bearish +2 via the Fed → yields/USD → pressure on commodities channel. But I don’t score it higher because ISM stated that part of the price increase comes from petroleum-based products due to the Middle East conflict; if we treat the entire Prices Paid as an independent macro shock, we would end up double-counting the oil shock we already accounted for earlier.
So this time the math is: Bullish +1 from demand − Bearish +2 from inflation/Fed = net Bearish +1. The balance 56/44 → 55/45.