#以太坊三季度涨70.9%
1️⃣ How did the numbers come about?
Beginning of the quarter (7/1): ETH ≈ $1,570
End of the quarter (9/30): ETH ≈ $2,685–$2,690
Percentage increase: (2689.39 ÷ 1569.83 − 1) × 100 ≈ 71.3%; the media reports 70.9%, which comes from differences in chosen time snapshots (if the intraday pullback is a few points at the close, it lands around 70.8%–70.9%)
In the same period, BTC is about +42.7%~44%, and ETH outperforms BTC by roughly 27 percentage points
2️⃣ Why could it rise so much?
1. Spot ETF inflows returning: Q3 U.S. ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.1 billion; in August alone, about $1.85 billion. Total net asset value doubled to ~US$17.8 billion
2. Low-base correction: At the quarter’s start, ETH around 1,570 was 68% lower than the August 2025 high (~4,950). With the same amount of capital, smaller order books can move faster upward
3. On-chain activity rebounds: Stablecoin market cap rose to ~US$292 billion, DeFi TVL returned to 85–88 billion, and Layer2 settlement volumes warmed up
4. Sentiment factors: The SEC’s “innovation exemption” for tokenized stocks, expectations for the Glamsterdam upgrade, and long-term holders not selling at scale
5. Macros not a drag: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, but ETFs had stronger absorption power—crypto outperformed U.S. stocks (Nasdaq in Q3 only +2.5%) and gold (+3.3%)
3️⃣ Things to pay attention to in the “suffix”
1. This is quarterly return, not annual: From early 2026 to now, ETH is still slightly negative (about −9%)
2. The quarterly peak on 9/22 is ~2,775; by 9/30 it had pulled back about 3.5%. Q4 opened with a range-bound period of 2,680–2,720, without continuing to expand the rally
3. Short-term disturbances: Bitget’s stolen funds of about $350 million were swapped into BTC via THORChain, creating psychological selling pressure
4. Historical pattern is relatively cool: ETH’s historical median Q4 annual returns are only ~0.15%, far lower than BTC’s Q4 seasonality $BTC
$ETH
1️⃣ How did the numbers come about?
Beginning of the quarter (7/1): ETH ≈ $1,570
End of the quarter (9/30): ETH ≈ $2,685–$2,690
Percentage increase: (2689.39 ÷ 1569.83 − 1) × 100 ≈ 71.3%; the media reports 70.9%, which comes from differences in chosen time snapshots (if the intraday pullback is a few points at the close, it lands around 70.8%–70.9%)
In the same period, BTC is about +42.7%~44%, and ETH outperforms BTC by roughly 27 percentage points
2️⃣ Why could it rise so much?
1. Spot ETF inflows returning: Q3 U.S. ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.1 billion; in August alone, about $1.85 billion. Total net asset value doubled to ~US$17.8 billion
2. Low-base correction: At the quarter’s start, ETH around 1,570 was 68% lower than the August 2025 high (~4,950). With the same amount of capital, smaller order books can move faster upward
3. On-chain activity rebounds: Stablecoin market cap rose to ~US$292 billion, DeFi TVL returned to 85–88 billion, and Layer2 settlement volumes warmed up
4. Sentiment factors: The SEC’s “innovation exemption” for tokenized stocks, expectations for the Glamsterdam upgrade, and long-term holders not selling at scale
5. Macros not a drag: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, but ETFs had stronger absorption power—crypto outperformed U.S. stocks (Nasdaq in Q3 only +2.5%) and gold (+3.3%)
3️⃣ Things to pay attention to in the “suffix”
1. This is quarterly return, not annual: From early 2026 to now, ETH is still slightly negative (about −9%)
2. The quarterly peak on 9/22 is ~2,775; by 9/30 it had pulled back about 3.5%. Q4 opened with a range-bound period of 2,680–2,720, without continuing to expand the rally
3. Short-term disturbances: Bitget’s stolen funds of about $350 million were swapped into BTC via THORChain, creating psychological selling pressure
4. Historical pattern is relatively cool: ETH’s historical median Q4 annual returns are only ~0.15%, far lower than BTC’s Q4 seasonality $BTC
$ETH