The US market just opened, and oil first surged.
Three oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and WTI jumped straight to $91. Brent touched $99. Trump said on his tongue that he had “completely controlled the strait,” but then, with a turn, the US pressured France and Germany to release their diesel reserves—refusing would mean threatening to ban exports of American diesel. This plot is more outrageous than a TV drama.
Back to crypto: US Treasuries this quarter are truly brutal. The 10-year yield is up to 5.29%—a rise of 87 basis points in a single quarter, the worst quarter since 1994. TLT has slid straight out to a new historical low. With risk-free yields already at 5.3%, it’s not surprising that $BTC $ETH is getting pressed down. It’s not a problem with the coin—this is a question of capital allocation that has changed.
But one logic is shifting: with geopolitics this chaotic, even gold has paused its run at 4155. Funds still have to find an exit. Iran has already received the US’s new 7-day ceasefire proposal; if talks actually show signs of progress, the first place risk appetite likely returns is probably the big bet.
In the short term, $BTC $ETH will just keep wobbling with oil prices and US Treasury yields. It’s better to hold steady than to keep chasing back and forth.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #地缘政治 #原油 #加密货币
Three oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and WTI jumped straight to $91. Brent touched $99. Trump said on his tongue that he had “completely controlled the strait,” but then, with a turn, the US pressured France and Germany to release their diesel reserves—refusing would mean threatening to ban exports of American diesel. This plot is more outrageous than a TV drama.
Back to crypto: US Treasuries this quarter are truly brutal. The 10-year yield is up to 5.29%—a rise of 87 basis points in a single quarter, the worst quarter since 1994. TLT has slid straight out to a new historical low. With risk-free yields already at 5.3%, it’s not surprising that $BTC $ETH is getting pressed down. It’s not a problem with the coin—this is a question of capital allocation that has changed.
But one logic is shifting: with geopolitics this chaotic, even gold has paused its run at 4155. Funds still have to find an exit. Iran has already received the US’s new 7-day ceasefire proposal; if talks actually show signs of progress, the first place risk appetite likely returns is probably the big bet.
In the short term, $BTC $ETH will just keep wobbling with oil prices and US Treasury yields. It’s better to hold steady than to keep chasing back and forth.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #地缘政治 #原油 #加密货币