🧧 A low-multiplier leverage paired with a reasonable compounding cycle is the correct way to keep assets steadily doubling.
High-multiplier leverage is like a seemingly sweet but deadly poison—apart from accelerating liquidation to zero, it does nothing else.
Only by strictly keeping leverage within a low-multiplier range can the system be given enough fault tolerance and resilience against volatility.
When combined with a long-term compounding roll of three months to half a year, steady small wins will rapidly grow and swell like a snowball.
Let go of the luck-based mindset of gamblers and opportunists; choose to befriend leverage and time with science—that is the only true path to asset leapfrogging.
After the Non-Farm Payrolls came out, my biggest takeaway is that the Fed has even more compelling reasons to hold steady in October.
First, let’s look at a few key figures. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. In addition, revisions over the previous two months total a downward adjustment of 60,000. In the interest rate swap market, traders now price the probability of a rate hike in October at just 17%. Even more striking, the Kalshi prediction market prices a higher chance of holding rates steady in October at 85%.
The CME FedWatch data change is also very straightforward— the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose from about 76% the previous day to 86%.
In fact, before the Non-Farm Payrolls were released, Fed officials had already been signaling this. New York Fed President Williams said there is “no need for urgency” around the next rate hike, and Vice Chair Jefferson also noted that policymakers need more time to observe the data. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian commented as well that this set of data will further reinforce the impact of recent Fed officials’ remarks, and market expectations for an October rate hike are cooling.
However, keep in mind: this Non-Farm report only makes rate hikes feel “less urgent,” but it does not mean a policy turn. Inflation is still the Fed’s top concern. While the probability of no move in October is high, how things play out in December will depend on subsequent inflation data.
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🧧🎁🌹🧧🎁🌹 1. Core Projects and Ecosystem Developments Hyperliquid Sees Its First AQAv2 Reserve Revenue Distribution: According to the community and PANews, Hyperliquid is expected to receive its first AQAv2 reserve revenue distribution today (October 3). Passive income of approximately $14.5 million to $20 million generated from the USDC reserves will flow into the Assistance Fund, mainly used to buy back HYPE tokens. Cronos Community Proposal Vote: The Cronos community completed today’s vote on a proposal related to “using product revenue to repurchase and burn CRO.” This initiative aims to further optimize the tokenomics model and strengthen deflationary expectations. 2. Near-Term Industry Outlook Ethena (ENA) Large Unlock Approaching: The market is noting that about 3.03 billion ENA held by StablecoinX is expected to undergo permanent unlocking on October 4 immediately afterward. The industry is closely watching the potential impact on market liquidity.
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🧧 A low-multiplier leverage paired with a reasonable compounding cycle is the correct way to keep assets steadily doubling.
High-multiplier leverage is like a seemingly sweet but deadly poison—apart from accelerating liquidation to zero, it does nothing else.
Only by strictly keeping leverage within a low-multiplier range can the system be given enough fault tolerance and resilience against volatility.
When combined with a long-term compounding roll of three months to half a year, steady small wins will rapidly grow and swell like a snowball.
Let go of the luck-based mindset of gamblers and opportunists; choose to befriend leverage and time with science—that is the only true path to asset leapfrogging.
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