The latest weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 197,000, below the market expectation of 201,000. Continuing claims also dropped to 1.701 million. There’s no clear uptick in layoffs, and the job market still shows resilience.
The August PCE released the day before was also fairly moderate: it rose 3.4% year over year, below the market expectation of 3.7%, and core PCE was around 3.0% year over year. Inflation is still elevated, but at least it isn’t continuing to surge upward.
Put together, these data make a relatively comfortable package for both the stock market and the crypto market: inflation cools down, and employment hasn’t clearly deteriorated.
The market also quickly adjusted its rate expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October has fallen from about 71% a week ago to around 40%, and Goldman Sachs has also pushed its next rate-hike expectation from October to December.
That said, the interest-rate environment still isn’t truly accommodative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury remains elevated. If the upcoming nonfarm payrolls continue to be strong, discussions about the Fed delivering another hike by year-end will likely return.
#美国初请失业金人数降至19.7万
The August PCE released the day before was also fairly moderate: it rose 3.4% year over year, below the market expectation of 3.7%, and core PCE was around 3.0% year over year. Inflation is still elevated, but at least it isn’t continuing to surge upward.
Put together, these data make a relatively comfortable package for both the stock market and the crypto market: inflation cools down, and employment hasn’t clearly deteriorated.
The market also quickly adjusted its rate expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October has fallen from about 71% a week ago to around 40%, and Goldman Sachs has also pushed its next rate-hike expectation from October to December.
That said, the interest-rate environment still isn’t truly accommodative. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury remains elevated. If the upcoming nonfarm payrolls continue to be strong, discussions about the Fed delivering another hike by year-end will likely return.
#美国初请失业金人数降至19.7万
