$BTW Just reduced a portion of the position; the rest is still being held—no exit.
On the chart, after two days of around a 70% surge, the price is already far away from the original breakout area. The spike left a long upper wick, which suggests that someone is selling overhead. Chasing from here carries much higher risk than a few days ago. But the trend itself hasn’t broken yet: as long as a pullback doesn’t fully give back the entire breakout area, the bullish structure is still intact.
The reasons to be bullish are straightforward: the float is light, and the actually tradable shares make up only a small portion of the total. When money comes in, it’s easier to generate elastic price movement. The things to be wary of are also straightforward: what runs up quickly often retraces quickly too. When overall market sentiment is unstable, small-cap names are usually the first batch to be hammered.
In terms of narrative, this move is mainly supported by Binance Wallet’s DeFi incentive program, and that program has a clearly defined end date. A story with a deadline tends to generate concentrated hype and rise quickly, and investors know in their hearts that it has a time limit. So right now, this narrative is still heating up—sentiment and capital are both on board. But the closer we get to the end of the event, the more we need to guard against capital exiting after the good news is already priced in.
Sell off part, keep part—what we need to watch next is whether there will be buyers to pick up the slack during the pullback.
On the chart, after two days of around a 70% surge, the price is already far away from the original breakout area. The spike left a long upper wick, which suggests that someone is selling overhead. Chasing from here carries much higher risk than a few days ago. But the trend itself hasn’t broken yet: as long as a pullback doesn’t fully give back the entire breakout area, the bullish structure is still intact.
The reasons to be bullish are straightforward: the float is light, and the actually tradable shares make up only a small portion of the total. When money comes in, it’s easier to generate elastic price movement. The things to be wary of are also straightforward: what runs up quickly often retraces quickly too. When overall market sentiment is unstable, small-cap names are usually the first batch to be hammered.
In terms of narrative, this move is mainly supported by Binance Wallet’s DeFi incentive program, and that program has a clearly defined end date. A story with a deadline tends to generate concentrated hype and rise quickly, and investors know in their hearts that it has a time limit. So right now, this narrative is still heating up—sentiment and capital are both on board. But the closer we get to the end of the event, the more we need to guard against capital exiting after the good news is already priced in.
Sell off part, keep part—what we need to watch next is whether there will be buyers to pick up the slack during the pullback.
