Daily sharing

I’m so shaken—ever since the big pizza surged to 87395 last week, it started oscillating and pulling back. It’s already been 9 days of range trading. For now, it hasn’t broken below 80,000, and it hasn’t risen above 86,000 either. With continued sideways movement, both longs and shorts have it relatively hard.

From the daily chart, BTC’s daily trend has already formed a death cross and a top-and-divergence pattern. This gives signals of a staged top. However, there isn’t yet a clear daily top fractal, and the daily chart hasn’t broken below the MA30. So whether it will continue to surge again in the short term is still in doubt. That said, the overall trend seems clear: the daily-level rebound has already ended or is about to end. In October, there should be a daily-level correction, which would be the second daily correction within the weekly-level rebound.

It’s just that it’s uncertain here whether it will keep consolidating and then suddenly start a daily-level pullback, or whether it will give one more push toward the prior high area before starting the daily-level decline. Wait patiently for the breakout/turning point. If it surges again, then look for a suitable spot to short. If it doesn’t surge, then if it breaks below 81,000, you can see whether there’s an opportunity to chase a short.

Mid-to-short-term trend direction

4h timeframe main direction: Currently, it’s most likely the last leg of the 4h-level rebound within the daily rebound, and it’s already in the terminal phase.

1h timeframe main direction: In the short term it’s still experiencing ongoing consolidation. For now, we can regard it as a consolidation of the 1h-level center. It remains to be seen whether it goes to 86,000 first or breaks 81,000 first.

BTC short term

Because market changes quickly in the short term, the article can only make a prediction of how the行情 will change at the moment it’s published. Short-term players, pay attention to the latest changes in the market—use this only as a reference.

1H：

1) On the 1h level, it’s still within range-bound consolidation. Last night it looked like it had already surged up to 85,600, but then it fell back below 84,000 again. This shows that bulls and bears haven’t decided the outcome yet—the market is still consolidating.

2) Let’s look at this for now. If it can surge again to 87,400, that would be better—the structure would be more perfect.

3) Is it continuing to surge once more to complete a daily-level rebound, and then start a daily-level decline, or is it more like after the range-bound consolidation almost ends, it directly starts falling? We can only walk and watch.

15M：

1) On the 15-minute level, the short-term structure is quite messy. If it breaks back down below 83,000 again, it’s likely to go through another 1h-level pullback. Then watch whether 81,500 breaks.

2) If in the short term it can still push up to 85,000, then it’s likely it will continue up to 87,000.

3) In the short term, there’s still momentum for another push upward. You can check whether it continues to rebound later tonight.

ETH

1) For ETH short term as well, it’s currently running through consolidation at the 1h center. Last night it surged to 2740, but it didn’t hold. Tonight, observe again whether it can continue surging above 2740.

2) If in the short term it breaks back below 2656, then the new 1h-level pullback has already started. As long as it doesn’t break below 2620, there’s still a chance for the short term to complete another 1h-level rebound going above 2800.

3) ETH’s 2-day line is about to lock in a death cross, so in all likelihood this month will see a daily-level pullback. The target for the pullback is still below 2300. In the short term, it’s basically just whether it can surge once more from here.