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易琳Ten
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Bullish#BTC Why am I still firmly optimistic about the bull market?
Many people believe that with rate-hike expectations heating up, oil prices staying high, and US Treasury yields remaining at elevated levels, the market environment does not support a bull market.
So, they conclude that this rally is just a bull trap, and that fresh lows will appear afterward.
That’s fine—everyone has their own judgment.
But I’ve always believed that in the early stage of switching from bear to bull, it is often accompanied by massive disagreement and doubt.
I don’t believe that a real bull market must wait until external conditions stabilize, economic data improves across the board, and only then—after the FOMC meeting—when Waller signals a rate-cut direction, will the market officially get started.
If everyone waits until good news is already in place, data turns better, and the market is unanimously bullish before entering, then where would the market be at that point?
Do institutions really not know that rate hikes may continue in the future? Don’t they pay attention to the US10Y and US30Y Treasury yields, or the persistently high oil prices?
Since these risks are all on the table, why has BTC still managed to put out such a行情?
I won’t easily deny my own judgment just because there are bearish factors in the market. Of course, my judgment could also be wrong—ultimately it still needs the market’s price action to verify.
Let time give the answer.
Maybe a year from now, when Bitcoin breaks its all-time high again, market voices will gradually shift from doubt to belief, and more and more people will firmly start to think: the bull market really is here.
But by then, what stage of the bull market will the行情 be in?
The market always starts amid doubt, moves forward amid differences, and turns狂热 amid consensus.
I don’t need everyone to agree with my view right now.
I only need to keep independent thinking, respect market signals, manage risk well, and then let time verify everything.
What’s truly worth thinking about is not when everyone believes in the bull market, but whether—in a market still full of disagreement—you have your own judgment, and the ability to take the risk that comes with that judgment.
#BTC #Bitcoin #EarlyBullMarket #交易认知
Many people believe that with rate-hike expectations heating up, oil prices staying high, and US Treasury yields remaining at elevated levels, the market environment does not support a bull market.
So, they conclude that this rally is just a bull trap, and that fresh lows will appear afterward.
That’s fine—everyone has their own judgment.
But I’ve always believed that in the early stage of switching from bear to bull, it is often accompanied by massive disagreement and doubt.
I don’t believe that a real bull market must wait until external conditions stabilize, economic data improves across the board, and only then—after the FOMC meeting—when Waller signals a rate-cut direction, will the market officially get started.
If everyone waits until good news is already in place, data turns better, and the market is unanimously bullish before entering, then where would the market be at that point?
Do institutions really not know that rate hikes may continue in the future? Don’t they pay attention to the US10Y and US30Y Treasury yields, or the persistently high oil prices?
Since these risks are all on the table, why has BTC still managed to put out such a行情?
I won’t easily deny my own judgment just because there are bearish factors in the market. Of course, my judgment could also be wrong—ultimately it still needs the market’s price action to verify.
Let time give the answer.
Maybe a year from now, when Bitcoin breaks its all-time high again, market voices will gradually shift from doubt to belief, and more and more people will firmly start to think: the bull market really is here.
But by then, what stage of the bull market will the行情 be in?
The market always starts amid doubt, moves forward amid differences, and turns狂热 amid consensus.
I don’t need everyone to agree with my view right now.
I only need to keep independent thinking, respect market signals, manage risk well, and then let time verify everything.
What’s truly worth thinking about is not when everyone believes in the bull market, but whether—in a market still full of disagreement—you have your own judgment, and the ability to take the risk that comes with that judgment.
#BTC #Bitcoin #EarlyBullMarket #交易认知
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.