Brothers, don’t take those numbers too seriously before the big election.

Arthur goes straight to the conclusion: you’re looking at a magic trick; I’m looking at the structure.

The structure looks at the real values, and the magic trick looks at the published values. These two are often not the same.

The reason is simple: before the election, the data is adjusted—within the rules, it’s part of the game. It’s not that someone is trying to fool you.

So I only look at two things: how the market moves when the published values come out, and where the real values are hidden.

Don’t put all your heavy position on betting one number—go all-in with high leverage, and once the data comes out, you get hit from both directions.

Split your positions, wait for the outcome, and go verify the data yourself.

Smart of you to click my profile to find out.

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