#比特币升破85200美元 This hot-list headline is still there, but the $85,200 level was the price previously reached—not the current price at 18:38 on October 1 Beijing time. At 17:36, the record 372556449995244 shows that during the complete hour from 16:00 to 17:00, the price broke below the previous low and then closed higher; in the first half of the hour before 17:00, it continued to push upward. Compared with the last cycle, there is now one full 17:00 hour and two 15-minute candles at 18:00. The rebound really did continue into the hour’s close, but it came with a clear contraction in trading volume, followed by a pullback.
First, look at the two hours that have already closed. Binance BTC/USDT spot: the 16:00–17:00 candle closed at $83,566.97, with USDT trading volume of about $119 million; the 17:00–18:00 candle closed at $83,782.01, with the high at $83,896.01, and trading volume of about $60.39 million. The close is higher by $215.04 over the same period, but the trading volume decreased by roughly 49%. This indicates that when the price was lifted, the turnover/rotation size was smaller than in the previous hour. You can’t conclude that buy pressure is stronger just because the close is higher, and you also can’t directly declare that the rally is over simply because volume fell; the previous hour included intense trading after printing a new low, and the two-hour segments are in different phases.
Next, look at the two completed 15-minute candles at 18:00. 18:00–18:15: the low fell to $83,418.23 and it closed at $83,703.56. 18:15–18:30: the low was $83,548.80 and it closed at $83,686.65. In the first half-hour, price moved back close to below the close of the 16:00 hour; the second candle did not break above the low of the first, and its close is slightly lower than the previous one. It shows that both pullback and attempts to absorb/support are happening at the same time. So you can’t infer the final direction from the incomplete 18:00–19:00 full hour.
The additional facts in this post compared with the 17:36 post are: the price rose during the full 17:00 hour while the trading volume was nearly cut in half, and during the first half of the 18:00 period there was a pullback to $83,418.23. Next, we need to see whether the 18:00 full hour can close back above $83,782.01 and whether trading volume recovers; if there is a further valid breakdown below $83,418.23, the short-term rebound structure will be weaker. The $83,896.01 above is the high of the 17:00 hour that has already been observed—it’s not a guaranteed target that must be broken. The hot-list headline of $85,200 is still far above these already completed candles, so you shouldn’t treat an old headline as a new breakout signal.
First, look at the two hours that have already closed. Binance BTC/USDT spot: the 16:00–17:00 candle closed at $83,566.97, with USDT trading volume of about $119 million; the 17:00–18:00 candle closed at $83,782.01, with the high at $83,896.01, and trading volume of about $60.39 million. The close is higher by $215.04 over the same period, but the trading volume decreased by roughly 49%. This indicates that when the price was lifted, the turnover/rotation size was smaller than in the previous hour. You can’t conclude that buy pressure is stronger just because the close is higher, and you also can’t directly declare that the rally is over simply because volume fell; the previous hour included intense trading after printing a new low, and the two-hour segments are in different phases.
Next, look at the two completed 15-minute candles at 18:00. 18:00–18:15: the low fell to $83,418.23 and it closed at $83,703.56. 18:15–18:30: the low was $83,548.80 and it closed at $83,686.65. In the first half-hour, price moved back close to below the close of the 16:00 hour; the second candle did not break above the low of the first, and its close is slightly lower than the previous one. It shows that both pullback and attempts to absorb/support are happening at the same time. So you can’t infer the final direction from the incomplete 18:00–19:00 full hour.
The additional facts in this post compared with the 17:36 post are: the price rose during the full 17:00 hour while the trading volume was nearly cut in half, and during the first half of the 18:00 period there was a pullback to $83,418.23. Next, we need to see whether the 18:00 full hour can close back above $83,782.01 and whether trading volume recovers; if there is a further valid breakdown below $83,418.23, the short-term rebound structure will be weaker. The $83,896.01 above is the high of the 17:00 hour that has already been observed—it’s not a guaranteed target that must be broken. The hot-list headline of $85,200 is still far above these already completed candles, so you shouldn’t treat an old headline as a new breakout signal.
