🚨 In the past 13 Octobers, 10 have gone up—but Bitcoin first welcomed a sharp long/short divergence: Uptober or Redtober?
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👀 October is traditionally Bitcoin’s best-performing month. According to CoinGlass data, out of the 13 recorded Octobers since 2013, 10 closed higher and only 3 closed lower; and Bitcoin has just strung together three consecutive monthly green candles for July, August, and September.
📊 The bullish case is quite solid: spot ETFs have continued to see net inflows, exchange balances have been falling, and listed companies are stockpiling coins. In mid-September, Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $75,000, then quickly reclaimed $80,000; from September 22 to 23, it pushed further to as high as $87,000, finishing the month up 6.33%.
🔥 The bearish side also has plenty of firepower. Last October, right after setting a new all-time high, the market abruptly turned downward—about $19 billion worth of liquidations were triggered within 24 hours, followed by several months of declines. Some analysts have also reminded people that October has a strong historical track record, but seasonality by itself isn’t an investment thesis.
💡 What’s really worth focusing on isn’t whether October goes up or not, but the line analysts highlighted: the benchmark range is $78,000 to $95,000. Holding above $82,000—and turning $87,500 into support—is what creates a chance to see $95,000. If there’s an effective breakdown below $80,000, then this seasonal bullish structure is invalidated.
⚠️ Let me say something a little offensive: treating the idea that October averages gains of 11% to 14% as a reason to buy—similar to last year chasing longs at the historical high—comes down to the same thing. It uses a statistical pattern to mask the higher funding cost at the current moment. Seasonality tells you probability, not the path.
👀 Are you on the long side or the short side for this move? Comment below 👇
Click the avatar to watch the live stream + join the Jiujiu chat group to get daily strategies 🚀
#比特币 #BTC #加密市场
Group: 点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
👀 October is traditionally Bitcoin’s best-performing month. According to CoinGlass data, out of the 13 recorded Octobers since 2013, 10 closed higher and only 3 closed lower; and Bitcoin has just strung together three consecutive monthly green candles for July, August, and September.
📊 The bullish case is quite solid: spot ETFs have continued to see net inflows, exchange balances have been falling, and listed companies are stockpiling coins. In mid-September, Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $75,000, then quickly reclaimed $80,000; from September 22 to 23, it pushed further to as high as $87,000, finishing the month up 6.33%.
🔥 The bearish side also has plenty of firepower. Last October, right after setting a new all-time high, the market abruptly turned downward—about $19 billion worth of liquidations were triggered within 24 hours, followed by several months of declines. Some analysts have also reminded people that October has a strong historical track record, but seasonality by itself isn’t an investment thesis.
💡 What’s really worth focusing on isn’t whether October goes up or not, but the line analysts highlighted: the benchmark range is $78,000 to $95,000. Holding above $82,000—and turning $87,500 into support—is what creates a chance to see $95,000. If there’s an effective breakdown below $80,000, then this seasonal bullish structure is invalidated.
⚠️ Let me say something a little offensive: treating the idea that October averages gains of 11% to 14% as a reason to buy—similar to last year chasing longs at the historical high—comes down to the same thing. It uses a statistical pattern to mask the higher funding cost at the current moment. Seasonality tells you probability, not the path.
👀 Are you on the long side or the short side for this move? Comment below 👇
Click the avatar to watch the live stream + join the Jiujiu chat group to get daily strategies 🚀
#比特币 #BTC #加密市场
