The PCE inflation data came in below expectations, briefly igniting market bullish sentiment, but hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and surging Treasury yields quickly put a damper on optimism. The market has entered a tug-of-war phase of “data is favorable, but policy expectations are tightening.”
📊 Price spike then reversal, falling into a range-bound market
· $BTC : After the PCE release, it surged briefly to 85,598 dollars, then fell back to around 83,600. It is currently ranging between 82,600 and 85,600.
· $ETH : The quote is about 2,713 dollars, up 1.87% intraday. It failed to hold the 2,738 daily high as well, and has also moved into consolidation.
· Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 74, still in the “Greed” state.
🏛️ Macro: mixed forces for both bulls and bears
· August core PCE year-over-year was 3.0%, below the 3.3% forecast, hitting a six-month low and easing concerns about further rate hikes.
· But Fed officials collectively turned hawkish: Kashkari expects another rate hike this year, and another in 2027; Cook and Goolsbee reiterated their determination to control inflation.
· Rate-hike odds: the October rate-hike expectation fell from over 50% to about 37%, but the December outlook warmed up.
· The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains near 5.3%. The 30-year yield briefly touched the highest level since 2002, continuing to weigh on the valuation of risk assets.
💰 Liquidity conditions: ETF performance diverges as a “whale” buys aggressively
· BTC ETFs: yesterday saw net outflows of $148.7 million, ending a streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows; however, the cumulative net inflow over the past month is still $2.95 billion.
· ETH ETFs: yesterday saw net outflows of $59.6 million.
· On-chain data: whales (holding 10–10,000 BTC) increased holdings by 41,025 BTC over the past 10 days, bringing their positions back to mid-August levels, sharply contrasting with retail traders’ wait-and-see stance.
📈 Institutions and technical setup
· Citigroup: raised its 12-month target price for BTC to $113,000 and for ETH to $3,028.
· Key levels:
· BTC resistance at 85,600; a breakout could target 87,354. Support at 82,600–83,000.
· ETH resistance is at 2,747 and 2,781; support is at 2,650. A break below could confirm a short-term pullback.
What do you think?
PCE’s good news was “cut off” by hawkish remarks. Yet the whales quietly accumulate. Do you think the market will turn here, or keep waiting for the next catalyst? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
The above data comes from public markets and is only for objective post-analysis; it does not constitute investment advice. DYOR and manage risk.