In the past 13 Octobers, Bitcoin has risen 10 times—this is what the crowd calls “Uptober.”
As of 2024, October’s average gain is 14.4%, with a median of 10.8%.
But there are two details that are easy to overlook: first, the first week of October often grinds sideways, with most of the gains showing up in the second half; second, last October happened to be the one time among the few when it actually closed down.
This year’s starting point is that Q3 BTC is up 44%, just ending three quarters of consecutive declines. In October there are also non-farm payrolls, the rate decision, and a whole string of on-chain events.
Seasonality is just probability, not a promise. Instead of betting on Uptober, I’d rather watch the ETF’s daily inflows.
$BTC are you betting on a positive October close or a negative one? Come back at month-end to see the answer.
As of 2024, October’s average gain is 14.4%, with a median of 10.8%.
But there are two details that are easy to overlook: first, the first week of October often grinds sideways, with most of the gains showing up in the second half; second, last October happened to be the one time among the few when it actually closed down.
This year’s starting point is that Q3 BTC is up 44%, just ending three quarters of consecutive declines. In October there are also non-farm payrolls, the rate decision, and a whole string of on-chain events.
Seasonality is just probability, not a promise. Instead of betting on Uptober, I’d rather watch the ETF’s daily inflows.
$BTC are you betting on a positive October close or a negative one? Come back at month-end to see the answer.