I asked him why he suddenly said that. He threw me a screenshot—back in December 2020, news about the SEC suing Ripple was everywhere, and exchanges took $XRP down overnight. He was panicking so badly that he cut his losses around $0.5. Then what? $XRP later sank to as low as $0.17, and he was grateful he got out fast. After that, in 2023, the judge ruled that XRP wasn’t a security, and the price doubled in a single day—he slapped his thigh in regret. Now $XRP is hovering around $1.49, down less than 1% over the past 24 hours (-0.91%), and he can’t sleep again. 💭
I’ve told this story a lot of times, but every time I come away with a new insight. With the SEC lawsuit, $XRP holders got split into two types: people who run away scared by sensational headlines, and people who watch on-chain data and stay put. Guess which type made money?
First, let’s talk about the current market situation. $XRP is now at $1.49, with a 24-hour high of $1.54 and a low of $1.48, and trading volume of 143 million coins. Price isn’t moving much, but the perpetual contract funding rate is +0.0063%—longs are paying shorts, which suggests a bullish leverage sentiment.📊 At times like this, the most dangerous thing isn’t a crash; it’s grinding sideways. Look at the most recent four 1-hour candlesticks: $1.50→$1.51→$1.51→$1.49→$1.49—flat like an ECG. In boring, stagnant conditions like this, many people get shaken out by a “fake rumor that the SEC has new actions.”
The mistake my friend made wasn’t that he didn’t understand technical analysis—it was that he equated “lawsuits” with “the project going to zero.” The SEC lawsuit is definitely a huge uncertainty, but the market has already priced it in. When the lawsuit was filed in 2020, $XRP dropped from $0.6 to $0.17—a decline of more than 70%. That was the peak of panic. After that, with each court development—good news or bad—the price fluctuations have narrowed. What does that mean? It means the chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands.🧠
Let me share an even more painful example. I know a guy who, in 2021, specifically waited for the SEC lawsuit’s “final ruling.” He said, “I won’t release my hold until I see the rabbit.” Then on July 2023, the judge’s decision came out. That day, $XRP jumped straight from $0.47 to $0.93. He chased in, and his cost basis was twice as high as those who bought the dip around $0.3. He waited for “certainty,” but certainty comes with a premium. In investing, the most expensive sentence is: “Wait until things are clear.” By the time you understand clearly, the meat is already gone.🐢
So now $XRP is at $1.49, and the SEC matter isn’t fully over yet. What should you do? My view is: don’t treat the lawsuit as a basis for buying and selling—treat it as a source of volatility. The fundamentals of $XRP—cross-border payments, the ODL corridor, and partner banks—won’t disappear because of a single lawsuit. When the price dropped to $1.48, the funding rate was still positive, which means someone at that level is willing to pay to go long. You can disagree, but you need to understand the market’s language.📖
Let me say something straightforward. Yesterday my friend asked me, “Can I chase it?” I didn’t answer. Because I knew: three years ago he cut losses at $0.5, and now at $1.49 he wants to chase again. The problem has never been the price—it’s that he doesn’t know why he bought, and why he sold. The SEC lawsuit is just a switch for his emotions, not an anchor for his decision-making.⚓️
After this period of sideways trading, do you think $XRP will first return to $1.4 or break above $1.6? Put your bets in the comments—I’ll see who guesses correctly👇