⚡ SHORT scenario target reached.
close 2685.22 / level 2713.88 · volume 3.24× / target 1.25×
📉 SHORT · $ETH (ETH/USDT) · downtrend scenario · context 15m, indicators 15m, trigger 5m
📍 Scenario: the scenario is not confirmed yet.
📊 MARKET
💵 Price: $2,683.49 · 1h -1.19% · 24h +0.30%.
💧 In 1h: volume $57,701,235.4077 · trades 202 972.
📊 M5 activity: volume $8,361,726.4247 · trades 13 213 · activity score 70/100.
📚 Order book ±1%: depth $2,746,275.0148 · spread 0.00%.
🛡️ DATA CHECK AND MARKET TYPE
✅ Data audit: passed · 5m passed · 15m passed.
✅ Market quality: passed.
🛡️ Risk assessment: BLOCKED · mandatory checks not passed · candle context, volume, and level do not align; price is at support ❗
🏷️ Context: Spot · an analytical hypothesis about a possible sale of an asset that is already in the Spot portfolio; a short position is not opened.
🧭 TECHNICAL PICTURE
🧭 Trigger status: waiting for price to return to the zone and for a reaction from the closed candle ❗
📉 A structural break downward has been confirmed.
🔎 Trigger check:
↩️ Retest: no ❗
🕯️ 5m close with rejection downward: no ❗
💧 Volume relative to the median: 1.39× · filter not passed ❗
💰 Close: $2,682.17.
🔵 Trigger level: $2,713.88.
🕯️ 5m candle context: 🔎 Bearish candle pattern not found · reason: · A supporting model was not detected in the directional zone. ❗
📉 SHORT context: price is below EMA50 and VWAP (15m).
📐 Price is below the EMA 21 of the selected context.
📊 Indicators of the selected context:
〽️ EMA 21: $2,701.9775 · price below
〽️ EMA 50: $2,696.0781 · price below
〽️ EMA 200: $2,688.7173 · price below
⚖️ VWAP: $2,700.0819 · price below
🌡️ RSI 14: 34.1
🧱 STRUCTURE AND PD ARRAY
🗓️ Senior filter 1D: bullish structure · counter-trend short · major swing levels: support $2,635.69 · resistance $2,807.34. D1 sets the context, but it does not override the 15m zone and the 5m trigger.
📐 24h Dealing Range: $2,665–$2,738.51 · EQ $2,701.755 · price in Discount · source: closed 15m candles for the last 24h.
🧱 Bearish Order Block: $2,713.88–$2,717.82 · without a fixed test
💎 Premium PD Array: $2,713.88–$2,717.82 · watch ❗
🕰️ Zone history: source 2026-10-01 06:59 UTC · impulse 2026-10-01 07:29 UTC · impulse body 14.31× of the median · impulse volume 3.34× of the median.
💎 For SHORT, Premium zones are considered (upper half of the range); Discount by itself does not strengthen the sell scenario. ❗
⚠️ SCENARIO BLOCKED: candle context, volume, and level do not align; price is at support; potential profit is less than the minimum reward/risk. Publication — only after separate confirmation by the operator; the system did not approve the scenario.
🧭 Pilot Fibonacci model for SHORT · 15m: there is an impulse; we wait for two closed counter-trend candles.
📐 Downward impulse: $2,722 → $2,679.7 · structure break; body 14.31× of the median · volume 3.34× of the median.
↩️ Wait for at least two consecutive closed counter-trend candles; working zone 38.2–61.8%: $2,695.8586–$2,705.8414.
🧪 This is a separate observation model: it currently does not change the auto-publication filters; probability is not calculated.
🎯 OBSERVATION PLAN
🔻 SHORT entry: 5m close below $2,713.88 · wait for confirmation.
🛑 SHORT stop/cancel: 5m close above $2,717.82.
🎯 TP1 SHORT · 1R: $2,700.5394.
🏁 TP2 SHORT · 2R: $2,706 · theoretical level.
↘ Observation zone: $2,713.88–$2,717.82 · bearish Order Block.
🔵 Confirmation: after a retest, a 5m close below $2,713.88 is required; the volume filter has not been passed yet ❗
🛑 Cancel: 5m close above $2,717.82.
🧪 STATISTICS
📈 Confirmed downward impulses in 24h: 2 impulses.
🎲 Probability: a numerical percentage is not calculated — retest outcomes have not yet been accumulated and verified ❗
⚠️ Analytical draft, not a trading recommendation and not a trade team. Verify the levels on the chart and consider your own risk ❗
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