#美国8月核心pce降至3%
The market has already priced rate cuts as a matter of timing. What investment banks are changing these past couple of days is the schedule for rate hikes..
🏛️ 消息第一时间
In August, core PCE rose 0.25% month over month and 3.01% year over year—both figures came in below expectations. Goldman Sachs quickly shifted the timing of the second rate hike from October to December, adding: “There’s a very good chance the FOMC will decide there’s no need to move again..” At the same time, J.P. Morgan’s version is: hike again in December for the final time, and then stop.. On the surface, this looks like a confirmation that inflation is cooling..
But what’s really worth watching isn’t where inflation lands—it’s how far out the expectation for “how many rate hikes are left” gets pushed.. Soft inflation news should have lifted risk assets directly, and Bitcoin that day did indeed touch 85,500, but then it was pushed back down.. What held it down wasn’t inflation data—it was the long-end U.S. Treasury yields still stuck near the highs seen since 2002..
The disagreement is out in the open too.. New York Fed President Williams says they need patience, while Governor Barr is still arguing for further tightening.. And earlier this month, Goldman Sachs itself supported a rate hike in September, when interest-rate futures priced a 87% probability for that September move.. Within two weeks, the same bank went from “we should hike” to “it’s unlikely we need to hike”..
That’s the logic of capital: it doesn’t care whether today’s data is good or bad—it cares where the endpoint is.. As long as the point for the “last rate hike” hasn’t been priced in, higher interest rates will continue to weigh on valuations of high-beta assets. Once the December move is recognized by the market as the endpoint, money will shift from the short end toward the most sensitive areas..
The next trigger is very close: the September employment report on October 2 will come before the next FOMC meeting.. If jobs are strong, the logic that “we don’t need to hike anymore” will have to be flipped. If jobs weaken, then the December hike is likely to be the end of the story, not a comma..
So Bitcoin’s current position is clear: what’s holding it down isn’t inflation—it’s the rate-hike cycle that hasn’t run its course yet.. You can’t change the decimal point of PCE. The only thing that can change the direction is one thing—the four words “the last (hike)” and when they get spoken..
The market has already priced rate cuts as a matter of timing. What investment banks are changing these past couple of days is the schedule for rate hikes..
🏛️ 消息第一时间
In August, core PCE rose 0.25% month over month and 3.01% year over year—both figures came in below expectations. Goldman Sachs quickly shifted the timing of the second rate hike from October to December, adding: “There’s a very good chance the FOMC will decide there’s no need to move again..” At the same time, J.P. Morgan’s version is: hike again in December for the final time, and then stop.. On the surface, this looks like a confirmation that inflation is cooling..
But what’s really worth watching isn’t where inflation lands—it’s how far out the expectation for “how many rate hikes are left” gets pushed.. Soft inflation news should have lifted risk assets directly, and Bitcoin that day did indeed touch 85,500, but then it was pushed back down.. What held it down wasn’t inflation data—it was the long-end U.S. Treasury yields still stuck near the highs seen since 2002..
The disagreement is out in the open too.. New York Fed President Williams says they need patience, while Governor Barr is still arguing for further tightening.. And earlier this month, Goldman Sachs itself supported a rate hike in September, when interest-rate futures priced a 87% probability for that September move.. Within two weeks, the same bank went from “we should hike” to “it’s unlikely we need to hike”..
That’s the logic of capital: it doesn’t care whether today’s data is good or bad—it cares where the endpoint is.. As long as the point for the “last rate hike” hasn’t been priced in, higher interest rates will continue to weigh on valuations of high-beta assets. Once the December move is recognized by the market as the endpoint, money will shift from the short end toward the most sensitive areas..
The next trigger is very close: the September employment report on October 2 will come before the next FOMC meeting.. If jobs are strong, the logic that “we don’t need to hike anymore” will have to be flipped. If jobs weaken, then the December hike is likely to be the end of the story, not a comma..
So Bitcoin’s current position is clear: what’s holding it down isn’t inflation—it’s the rate-hike cycle that hasn’t run its course yet.. You can’t change the decimal point of PCE. The only thing that can change the direction is one thing—the four words “the last (hike)” and when they get spoken..
