BIT Research believes the Bitcoin bear market has ended, and in one of its scenarios it estimated that, during the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin could reach a range between $185,000 and $215,000.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is trading above $83,000, and it is on track to end three consecutive months of gains, with quarterly profits of about 42%.
Indicators that the bear market is ending:
“BIT Research” says it identified the cycle bottom in late July after the price reached a downside target based on an Elliott Wave analysis and managed to hold the $62,900 level.
Also, the weekly RSI indicator stopped falling during June and July, despite Bitcoin prices recording new lows; this is a pattern the company compares to what happened at the 2022 bottom.
After that, Bitcoin’s price broke above its 21-week moving average at $69,272 and regained the $70,000 level, before it surpassed the all-time high reached by the coin in March 2024 at $73,084.
BIT also bases its view on investors’ cost basis of holdings, as the “True Market Mean” index is around $76,897.
According to the company’s analysis, this means the typical investor and the average buyer of spot Bitcoin funds in the United States are now in a profit zone, which could reduce selling pressure.
By contrast, the rise in U.S. federal debt to more than $40 trillion is another factor in the company’s analysis, since concerns about U.S. finances and higher Treasury yields could direct part of capital toward gold and Bitcoin.
BIT’s debt model assigns a reference value for Bitcoin of around $105,000, while the rise in the dollar is one of the most prominent negative factors.
However, the company believes that the strength of the dollar will not necessarily be sufficient to halt the uptrend.
$215,000 scenario:
In its bullish scenario, BIT relies on the behavior of previous cycles, where the price of Bitcoin historically increased by at least 85% above investors’ average cost basis of holdings.
According to the company’s estimates, this level is currently about $142,000, but it stresses that this is a reference level for monitoring a rising market, not a guaranteed price target or a minimum price floor.
In the previous cycle, the price of Bitcoin reached a level 85% above the cost basis at around $73,000 in March 2024, before it surged to a peak at $126,000—about 1.7 times that level.
Based on the assumption that this multiple falls to between 1.3 and 1.5 times, BIT estimates a range between $185,000 and $215,000.
However, the company does not consider this scenario to be guaranteed, and the timing of reaching it is unclear.
Based on the previous cycle, which took about 19 months to move from 85% above the cost basis to the peak, reaching the $200,000 area could take until 2028 or 2029 according to this pattern, with analysts emphasizing that this is merely a historical projection and that the timing is not precise.
