After checking the news at noon, the biggest feeling is just two words: conflicted.
On one side, the macro picture under $BTC feet continues to deteriorate—10-year U.S. Treasury yields surged 87 basis points in Q3, closing at 5.29%, the worst quarter since 1994. TLT fell 10% and hit a new all-time low. Real yields are headed toward 3%. With risk-free returns this tasty, who would rush into risk assets?
On the other side, Trump has just said he can "fully control the Strait of Hormuz." Over the past three days, crude oil export outflows were "historic," and the war premium in oil prices has basically been wiped out. He’s also weighing the diesel export ban.
The energy-cooling theory is theoretically supportive of inflation expectations, giving the Fed a bit of room—but it doesn’t help when long-end yields blow up first.
There’s also a surreal real-life event: a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight had a co-pilot go on a rampage. A pipe fitter from Israel—who had never even flown a plane before—charged into the cockpit and managed to level the aircraft. This is a plot Hollywood wouldn’t dare write.
My stance: near-term liquidity is still the biggest constraint. Don’t get carried away just because there’s a rebound—wait until yields show a clear attitude before taking action. Even a plumber can stay steady, so why are you rushing?
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #宏观经济 #美债收益率 #cryptocurrency
On one side, the macro picture under $BTC feet continues to deteriorate—10-year U.S. Treasury yields surged 87 basis points in Q3, closing at 5.29%, the worst quarter since 1994. TLT fell 10% and hit a new all-time low. Real yields are headed toward 3%. With risk-free returns this tasty, who would rush into risk assets?
On the other side, Trump has just said he can "fully control the Strait of Hormuz." Over the past three days, crude oil export outflows were "historic," and the war premium in oil prices has basically been wiped out. He’s also weighing the diesel export ban.
The energy-cooling theory is theoretically supportive of inflation expectations, giving the Fed a bit of room—but it doesn’t help when long-end yields blow up first.
There’s also a surreal real-life event: a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight had a co-pilot go on a rampage. A pipe fitter from Israel—who had never even flown a plane before—charged into the cockpit and managed to level the aircraft. This is a plot Hollywood wouldn’t dare write.
My stance: near-term liquidity is still the biggest constraint. Don’t get carried away just because there’s a rebound—wait until yields show a clear attitude before taking action. Even a plumber can stay steady, so why are you rushing?
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #宏观经济 #美债收益率 #cryptocurrency