Just wrote during the early shift: as of 9/30 still not all in place; now on Farside both sides are fully in place: US spot BTC ETF net outflows of about $148.7 million on 9/30, and ETH about −$59.6 million—right on target with the early-shift invalidation conditions: BTC turned to net redemptions, and ETH has been negative for the second consecutive trading day and widened (it was only −$2.8 million on 9/29).
Who should pay attention: those who are still using “institutional spot channels” to judge whether to keep buying and the pace. The reading is not “complete retreat,” but rather a further slowdown after last week’s influx of several hundred million. On the BTC side, the main flow was FBTC at about −$125.6 million, while IBIT was only about −$9.5 million. On the ETH side, there were outflows from FETH/Grayscale ETH/ETHE, and ETHA was about 0 on the day. At the time of writing, spot was around BTC 83.7k / ETH 2,691; prices are roughly the same as during the early shift, but the channel numbers have flipped back positive—again: “flow ≠ price moving in sync.”
For the early shift, since the channels are still open but the pace has slowed, step it down one level. If, on the next full trading day, both sides return to clearly net inflows, treat 9/30 as a one-day slowdown; if BTC + ETH turn positive again and widen, step down another tier.
$BTC $ETH｜Source: Farside｜Current price data-api.binance.vision｜Not investment advice
Who should pay attention: those who are still using “institutional spot channels” to judge whether to keep buying and the pace. The reading is not “complete retreat,” but rather a further slowdown after last week’s influx of several hundred million. On the BTC side, the main flow was FBTC at about −$125.6 million, while IBIT was only about −$9.5 million. On the ETH side, there were outflows from FETH/Grayscale ETH/ETHE, and ETHA was about 0 on the day. At the time of writing, spot was around BTC 83.7k / ETH 2,691; prices are roughly the same as during the early shift, but the channel numbers have flipped back positive—again: “flow ≠ price moving in sync.”
For the early shift, since the channels are still open but the pace has slowed, step it down one level. If, on the next full trading day, both sides return to clearly net inflows, treat 9/30 as a one-day slowdown; if BTC + ETH turn positive again and widen, step down another tier.
$BTC $ETH｜Source: Farside｜Current price data-api.binance.vision｜Not investment advice