#比特币升破85200美元
Bitcoin delivered its best quarter since 2021—up about 43% over three months.. But what really gets replaced isn’t the price, it’s the people sitting at the table..
💥 盘面异动群里说
Most people only see the rally percentage and that scary target price.. Q4 has always been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter historically, averaging a gain of 77% to 85% since 2013.. If BloFin extrapolates using the 77.07% average, it comes to nearly $147,000; using the median of 47.73%, it’s about $123,000.. The numbers look great, but extrapolation is extrapolation—especially since the rally from each cycle’s low point is actually diminishing..
The real change is in the nature of the money.. In the first half of this year, Bitcoin fell 22.2% and 14.09% even more; early July, around $58,600, what propped up the market was leverage.. Now it’s flipped: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from about $5 billion in net outflows at the end of July to about $1 billion in net inflows by the end of September—an $6 billion swing over two months. Last week alone saw net inflows of $2.39 billion, the biggest single week since October 2025..
At the same time, total open interest in Bitcoin futures fell from over 700,000 contracts on September 21 to about 644,000—its lowest since early January this year.. One side is leverage exiting, the other is spot demand stepping in. This switch matters more than the size of the rally, because it determines whether the next leg down becomes a liquidation cascade and stampede, or whether someone simply buys it from below..
The futures basis is compressing, implied volatility is sitting near a one-year low, and the “fuel” that could trigger a chain of liquidations is running out.. The cost is that the sharp upside pushed by leverage is disappearing too, and control is handed to the people buying with real money.. The evidence is right near the price: holdings in the cost range between $82,500 and $84,000 increased from about 110,000 BTC to 306,000 BTC within three days..
But don’t rush to get bullish.. This week Bitcoin just reclaims the 365-day moving average—its first time since March 2023. The price has also lifted to roughly $77,000.. Yet between $84,000 and $86,500, about 1.39 million BTC are pressing down—the largest supply wall right now..
Using Bitfinex’s algorithm, the ETF purchase volume relative to the roughly 450 Bitcoins mined per day has dropped from 25.6x to 1.8x as of September 29.. It estimates that this multiple needs to return to around 5x—meaning daily ETF demand of about $190 million—before that overhead wall can be absorbed relatively quickly..
So what to watch next isn’t really the $147,000 figure, but whether ETFs can buy back $190 million per day.. Macros also aren’t on the side of the bulls: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 5%, and the probability the market adds another rate hike in October has fallen this week from about 65% to about 38%..
If ETF demand comes back, the seasonal narrative will get a foundation, and the 1.39 million BTC above will be eaten up little by little.. If it doesn’t come back, once $81,300 breaks, attention will shift downward to the realization price around $77,000..
Bitcoin delivered its best quarter since 2021—up about 43% over three months.. But what really gets replaced isn’t the price, it’s the people sitting at the table..
💥 盘面异动群里说
Most people only see the rally percentage and that scary target price.. Q4 has always been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter historically, averaging a gain of 77% to 85% since 2013.. If BloFin extrapolates using the 77.07% average, it comes to nearly $147,000; using the median of 47.73%, it’s about $123,000.. The numbers look great, but extrapolation is extrapolation—especially since the rally from each cycle’s low point is actually diminishing..
The real change is in the nature of the money.. In the first half of this year, Bitcoin fell 22.2% and 14.09% even more; early July, around $58,600, what propped up the market was leverage.. Now it’s flipped: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from about $5 billion in net outflows at the end of July to about $1 billion in net inflows by the end of September—an $6 billion swing over two months. Last week alone saw net inflows of $2.39 billion, the biggest single week since October 2025..
At the same time, total open interest in Bitcoin futures fell from over 700,000 contracts on September 21 to about 644,000—its lowest since early January this year.. One side is leverage exiting, the other is spot demand stepping in. This switch matters more than the size of the rally, because it determines whether the next leg down becomes a liquidation cascade and stampede, or whether someone simply buys it from below..
The futures basis is compressing, implied volatility is sitting near a one-year low, and the “fuel” that could trigger a chain of liquidations is running out.. The cost is that the sharp upside pushed by leverage is disappearing too, and control is handed to the people buying with real money.. The evidence is right near the price: holdings in the cost range between $82,500 and $84,000 increased from about 110,000 BTC to 306,000 BTC within three days..
But don’t rush to get bullish.. This week Bitcoin just reclaims the 365-day moving average—its first time since March 2023. The price has also lifted to roughly $77,000.. Yet between $84,000 and $86,500, about 1.39 million BTC are pressing down—the largest supply wall right now..
Using Bitfinex’s algorithm, the ETF purchase volume relative to the roughly 450 Bitcoins mined per day has dropped from 25.6x to 1.8x as of September 29.. It estimates that this multiple needs to return to around 5x—meaning daily ETF demand of about $190 million—before that overhead wall can be absorbed relatively quickly..
So what to watch next isn’t really the $147,000 figure, but whether ETFs can buy back $190 million per day.. Macros also aren’t on the side of the bulls: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 5%, and the probability the market adds another rate hike in October has fallen this week from about 65% to about 38%..
If ETF demand comes back, the seasonal narrative will get a foundation, and the 1.39 million BTC above will be eaten up little by little.. If it doesn’t come back, once $81,300 breaks, attention will shift downward to the realization price around $77,000..
