◆ Morning Briefing · October 01
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good morning.
【Key Takeaway】
The S&P 500 edged down slightly around the 7,651 line; the Nasdaq closed higher against the trend. The indexes diverged, and the VIX rose. This is consolidation after the rally, not a trend reversal. Our stance today is to maintain exposure, avoid chasing, and not reduce leverage.
【Overnight Markets】
On the prior trading day, U.S. stocks finished mixed. The S&P 500 was 7,651.5, down 0.25%, with -0.71% over the past week and +0.26% over the past month. The Nasdaq was 26,861.1, up 0.24%, with +2.92% over the past month. The Dow and the S&P 500 were relatively weak in tandem, while the Nasdaq alone strengthened. The VIX closed at 16.3, up 1.87% on the day, +7.64% over the past week, and +9.52% over the past month. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 2% intraday, diverging from U.S. market action. The 10-Year Treasury yield climbed to 5.293%, up 3.8 basis points from the prior day. The DXY was 101.5, up 0.10%, and +2.06% over the past month.
【What to Watch Today】
On the Fed front, Kashkari said inflation is still around 3% and remains too high. New data has not changed his view. He expects one more rate hike this year, followed by another in 2027. This is a direct adjustment to the market’s rate-cut expectations—something we’re glad to hear. Until inflation returns to target, maintaining discipline is more responsible than turning early. With the 10-Year Treasury yield holding above 5.29% and the DXY strengthening over the past month, it suggests capital is repricing the path toward higher rates. Valuations built on “liquidity” eventually have to come back down. Our expectations for a dovish pivot remain disappointed.
【Smart Money Moves】
· Berkshire Hathaway: Bought 660,000 shares of LEN from 09-28 to 09-30, average price $81.59; increased stake to 26.03 million shares (Form 4, filed 09-30)
· Berkshire Hathaway: Sold 40,000 shares of BRK.A from 09-28, average price $503.09; remaining 70,000 shares (Form 4, filed 09-29)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced ARKK exposure by AMD -33%, about $81.1M (09-30 holdings)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced ARKK exposure by TXG -18%, about $59.0M (09-30 holdings)
Our read: Berkshire added to LEN around $81.59, increasing to 26.03 million shares, while trimming its own shares. This looks more like contrarian allocation into housing-related assets rather than releasing a directional signal. ARK trimming AMD and TXG looks more like portfolio rebalancing. A reminder: these are delayed public filings—Form 4 is filed within two business days, 13F is quarterly, and congressional reports can be up to 45 days. They can only be used as reference and do not constitute follow-trading guidance.
【Holdings Update】
All 13 previously disclosed positions have not yet hit the order trigger prices. We stick to the original plan and do not chase.
【Impact on Crypto】
BTC is trading at $83,595, down 0.03% over the past 24 hours, with basically no clear direction. With the 10-Year Treasury yield rising to 5.293% (up 3.8 basis points from the prior day) and the DXY up 2.06% over the past month, the cost of holding non-yielding assets is being pushed higher—this is the most direct transmission to BTC right now. As price consolidates and digests, we do not recommend adding leverage at this level.
【Our View Today】
Today our assessment of risk appetite is neutral to slightly lower: rates and the DXY are strengthening at the same time, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. The Nasdaq’s relative strength needs Volume confirmation. The relative winners are assets with stable cash flows and low sensitivity to rates. Keep positioning neutral—don’t add leverage. Only add to Long positions where there is a clear TP and Stop Loss, and wait until the consolidation ends before deciding on direction.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #BTC #Macro
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bonne journée.
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good morning.
【Key Takeaway】
The S&P 500 edged down slightly around the 7,651 line; the Nasdaq closed higher against the trend. The indexes diverged, and the VIX rose. This is consolidation after the rally, not a trend reversal. Our stance today is to maintain exposure, avoid chasing, and not reduce leverage.
【Overnight Markets】
On the prior trading day, U.S. stocks finished mixed. The S&P 500 was 7,651.5, down 0.25%, with -0.71% over the past week and +0.26% over the past month. The Nasdaq was 26,861.1, up 0.24%, with +2.92% over the past month. The Dow and the S&P 500 were relatively weak in tandem, while the Nasdaq alone strengthened. The VIX closed at 16.3, up 1.87% on the day, +7.64% over the past week, and +9.52% over the past month. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 2% intraday, diverging from U.S. market action. The 10-Year Treasury yield climbed to 5.293%, up 3.8 basis points from the prior day. The DXY was 101.5, up 0.10%, and +2.06% over the past month.
【What to Watch Today】
On the Fed front, Kashkari said inflation is still around 3% and remains too high. New data has not changed his view. He expects one more rate hike this year, followed by another in 2027. This is a direct adjustment to the market’s rate-cut expectations—something we’re glad to hear. Until inflation returns to target, maintaining discipline is more responsible than turning early. With the 10-Year Treasury yield holding above 5.29% and the DXY strengthening over the past month, it suggests capital is repricing the path toward higher rates. Valuations built on “liquidity” eventually have to come back down. Our expectations for a dovish pivot remain disappointed.
【Smart Money Moves】
· Berkshire Hathaway: Bought 660,000 shares of LEN from 09-28 to 09-30, average price $81.59; increased stake to 26.03 million shares (Form 4, filed 09-30)
· Berkshire Hathaway: Sold 40,000 shares of BRK.A from 09-28, average price $503.09; remaining 70,000 shares (Form 4, filed 09-29)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced ARKK exposure by AMD -33%, about $81.1M (09-30 holdings)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced ARKK exposure by TXG -18%, about $59.0M (09-30 holdings)
Our read: Berkshire added to LEN around $81.59, increasing to 26.03 million shares, while trimming its own shares. This looks more like contrarian allocation into housing-related assets rather than releasing a directional signal. ARK trimming AMD and TXG looks more like portfolio rebalancing. A reminder: these are delayed public filings—Form 4 is filed within two business days, 13F is quarterly, and congressional reports can be up to 45 days. They can only be used as reference and do not constitute follow-trading guidance.
【Holdings Update】
All 13 previously disclosed positions have not yet hit the order trigger prices. We stick to the original plan and do not chase.
【Impact on Crypto】
BTC is trading at $83,595, down 0.03% over the past 24 hours, with basically no clear direction. With the 10-Year Treasury yield rising to 5.293% (up 3.8 basis points from the prior day) and the DXY up 2.06% over the past month, the cost of holding non-yielding assets is being pushed higher—this is the most direct transmission to BTC right now. As price consolidates and digests, we do not recommend adding leverage at this level.
【Our View Today】
Today our assessment of risk appetite is neutral to slightly lower: rates and the DXY are strengthening at the same time, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. The Nasdaq’s relative strength needs Volume confirmation. The relative winners are assets with stable cash flows and low sensitivity to rates. Keep positioning neutral—don’t add leverage. Only add to Long positions where there is a clear TP and Stop Loss, and wait until the consolidation ends before deciding on direction.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #BTC #Macro
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bonne journée.
