#cftc向白宫提交两项事件合约规则提案
This round of regulation is not targeting a specific product, but a single definition.. Once that term is set, it effectively grants an entire category of businesses territorial rights..
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The U.S. CFTC has already submitted to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs a proposed rule to expand the definition of “swap” to include event contracts; it has also submitted an interim final rule that excludes products that are purely offline entertainment.. Both are still under review..
On the surface, the wording is dry, but what’s really being fought over is jurisdiction.. The CFTC has long argued that federal law gives it exclusive authority over swaps traded on U.S. regulated exchanges; the contracts of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi fall within this scope.. Meanwhile, the states—especially when it comes to sports event contracts—insist that these should be governed by each state’s own rules..
So the question of whether “event contracts count as swaps” is essentially what sets the direction of this entire lawsuit.. If they’re classified as swaps, the states’ enforcement room that previously existed is largely neutralized; the interim rule that excludes purely offline entertainment products is a way of leaving an exit for traditional offline venues, avoiding a direct collision with state-level oversight..
If you zoom out over time, much of the compliance space crypto has gained in recent years wasn’t granted by new legislation—it came from “definitions”.. Fitting a category of products into a particular regulatory box is far faster than passing a major bill, and the CLARITY Act being blocked provides a ready-made comparison..
What does this mean for the market.. Capital and attention in prediction markets are moving upward; once the classification is clarified, compliance platforms will have the confidence to scale up, and institutions will dare to get involved.. But Kalshi’s appeal failed—potentially all the way to the Supreme Court—showing that the standoff isn’t over yet, and in the short term, no one should expect a single ruling to settle everything..
What’s truly worth watching is which of these two rules takes effect first.. The interim final rule will land first, and in the short term it will narrow the scope; the proposed rule, by explicitly writing event contracts into the definition of swaps, expands capacity in the long run.. With the same kind of maneuver, the short-term and long-term directions could be exactly opposite..
This round of regulation is not targeting a specific product, but a single definition.. Once that term is set, it effectively grants an entire category of businesses territorial rights..
⚖️ 进群蹲一手消息
The U.S. CFTC has already submitted to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs a proposed rule to expand the definition of “swap” to include event contracts; it has also submitted an interim final rule that excludes products that are purely offline entertainment.. Both are still under review..
On the surface, the wording is dry, but what’s really being fought over is jurisdiction.. The CFTC has long argued that federal law gives it exclusive authority over swaps traded on U.S. regulated exchanges; the contracts of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi fall within this scope.. Meanwhile, the states—especially when it comes to sports event contracts—insist that these should be governed by each state’s own rules..
So the question of whether “event contracts count as swaps” is essentially what sets the direction of this entire lawsuit.. If they’re classified as swaps, the states’ enforcement room that previously existed is largely neutralized; the interim rule that excludes purely offline entertainment products is a way of leaving an exit for traditional offline venues, avoiding a direct collision with state-level oversight..
If you zoom out over time, much of the compliance space crypto has gained in recent years wasn’t granted by new legislation—it came from “definitions”.. Fitting a category of products into a particular regulatory box is far faster than passing a major bill, and the CLARITY Act being blocked provides a ready-made comparison..
What does this mean for the market.. Capital and attention in prediction markets are moving upward; once the classification is clarified, compliance platforms will have the confidence to scale up, and institutions will dare to get involved.. But Kalshi’s appeal failed—potentially all the way to the Supreme Court—showing that the standoff isn’t over yet, and in the short term, no one should expect a single ruling to settle everything..
What’s truly worth watching is which of these two rules takes effect first.. The interim final rule will land first, and in the short term it will narrow the scope; the proposed rule, by explicitly writing event contracts into the definition of swaps, expands capacity in the long run.. With the same kind of maneuver, the short-term and long-term directions could be exactly opposite..
