US stocks closed on Wednesday: the Dow fell by more than 400 points. The S&P 500 closed slightly lower, while the Nasdaq edged up. Midday market moves were shaken by inflation data, but the selloff was largely unwound into the close.
The real highlight isn’t the rise or fall of the indexes—it’s interest rates. August PCE year-over-year came in at 3.4%, below expectations, and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 37%. But the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was pushed above 5.3%, reaching the highest level since May 2002.
Long-end yields staying at elevated levels act as the same anchor weighing on all risk assets. The crypto market doesn’t have earnings seasons or dot plots to watch, but the “well” of dollar liquidity is shared by all assets. Every time U.S. Treasury yields step higher, the discount rate for global capital rises as well—assets with zero or minimal cash flow, like Bitcoin, are often hit first.
With data relatively mild and rates hanging high, bulls and bears are tangled up. In such a situation, more important than guessing direction is understanding how sensitive your positions are to interest rates. When rates hover at high levels, crypto must rely more on its own narrative and real liquidity conditions to hold up—outside support is limited.
$COTI #美股收盘 #美债收益率 #宏观流动性
The real highlight isn’t the rise or fall of the indexes—it’s interest rates. August PCE year-over-year came in at 3.4%, below expectations, and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 37%. But the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was pushed above 5.3%, reaching the highest level since May 2002.
Long-end yields staying at elevated levels act as the same anchor weighing on all risk assets. The crypto market doesn’t have earnings seasons or dot plots to watch, but the “well” of dollar liquidity is shared by all assets. Every time U.S. Treasury yields step higher, the discount rate for global capital rises as well—assets with zero or minimal cash flow, like Bitcoin, are often hit first.
With data relatively mild and rates hanging high, bulls and bears are tangled up. In such a situation, more important than guessing direction is understanding how sensitive your positions are to interest rates. When rates hover at high levels, crypto must rely more on its own narrative and real liquidity conditions to hold up—outside support is limited.
$COTI #美股收盘 #美债收益率 #宏观流动性
